Greece's Renewable Energy Market Faces Challenges Amid Solar Surge

Greece's wholesale electricity market is experiencing a significant shift due to the rapid growth of solar power capacity. Recent modeling indicates a trend towards negative pricing during peak solar production hours, leading to the formation of a "bathtub curve" in daily price charts. This phenomenon has already led to Greece's first negative electricity prices in 2023, particularly intensifying during August and September. The Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Energy Producers (SPEF) predicts that for every additional 1,000 MW of solar capacity, the system marginal price (SMP) at noon could decrease by EUR 10 per MWh. Currently, prices have fallen to as low as negative EUR 1 per MWh, with projections suggesting they could drop further as installations increase.

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The surge in photovoltaic capacity, expected to reach at least 2 GW this year, is straining profitability for renewable energy investments. Panagiotis Mourtopalas, CEO of MGD Energy, highlighted that business plans are under pressure due to curtailments and negative pricing, resulting in the loss of approximately 2,000 jobs in the renewable energy sector this year alone. The Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (HELAPCO) estimates that new capacities could range between 2.6 GW and 3 GW, indicating no signs of a slowdown in solar installations.

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Industry leaders have expressed concerns regarding the sustainability of the current growth trajectory. Stelios Loumakis, Chairman of SPEF, warned that the market could become systematically overheated, leading to lower profits for solar energy producers. He noted that the daily power price curve is evolving from a "duck curve" to a more pronounced "bathtub curve," which could have long-term implications for the market dynamics.

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

In response to the evolving market conditions, Loumakis stated, “The duck curve will eventually become the bathtub curve,” emphasizing the need for strategic planning to mitigate the adverse effects of negative pricing. Mourtopalas echoed these sentiments, indicating that the current situation is unsustainable for many businesses in the sector.

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

As Greece continues to expand its renewable energy capacity, stakeholders are closely monitoring the implications of negative pricing on market stability and investment viability. The ongoing installation of solar and battery storage systems will be crucial in shaping the future of Greece's energy landscape, as the country aims to balance growth with economic sustainability.

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

• “CEO of MGD Energy Panagiotis Mourtopalas said at the Renewable and Storage Forum that business plans are under pressure because of curtailments and negative prices.” — Panagiotis Mourtopalas, CEO, MGD Energy

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

This evolving situation in Greece's renewable energy market underscores the complexities of transitioning to a greener energy future while maintaining economic viability for stakeholders involved.

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