U.S. Navy Faces Critical Missile Shortage Amid Rising Threats

Internal assessments from the U.S. Navy reveal a significant missile shortage that jeopardizes the fleet's operational readiness, particularly in light of recent military engagements against Houthi militants in the Red Sea. Between October 2023 and January 2025, U.S. Navy ships expended more missiles than in the previous three decades combined, with the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group alone firing 155 defensive missiles and 135 Tomahawk cruise missiles. This unprecedented usage has highlighted the Navy's inability to replenish its missile stocks, which are insufficient to sustain ongoing operations and prepare for potential conflicts with adversaries like the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China.

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Despite having approximately 10,000 vertical launch systems (VLS) capable of firing missiles, the Navy lacks enough missiles to fill these systems even once. The Heritage Foundation reports that the Navy has expended at least 2,800 Standard Missiles and 2,900 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), leaving a maximum of around 17,000 VLS-launched munitions on paper. However, this figure is misleading, as many missiles are unavailable due to training use, attrition, or retirement. Current production rates are inadequate, with only 68 Tomahawks procured in fiscal year 2023 and plans for just 22 in 2025, a stark contrast to the 800 needed for a single operation like the opening bombardment during Operation Iraqi Freedom.

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The depletion of missile stocks poses a strategic disadvantage for the U.S. Navy, especially in the context of a potential conflict with China. The Red Sea operations alone consumed over $1 billion in munitions against a non-peer adversary, raising concerns about the Navy's capacity to counter advanced threats from the PLAN, which includes sophisticated anti-ship missiles and drone swarms. Experts warn that every missile used in current operations reduces the stockpile available for future engagements, creating a precarious situation that could persist until U.S. defense industries ramp up production.

The U.S. Navy’s Great Missile Shortage

Critics, including retired Navy officials, have expressed alarm over the Navy's current state, likening it to sending soldiers into battle with insufficient ammunition. Navy Secretary John Phelan has acknowledged the issue, stating, “We’re at a dangerously low level from a stockpile perspective,” and has committed to addressing the missile shortage. The Navy's reliance on a thin supplier base for missile components further complicates the situation, as each missile can take up to two years to produce.

The U.S. Navy’s Great Missile Shortage

• “You stand the chance now of sending a ship into harm’s way that would be the equivalent of sending soldiers into battle with only a handful of rounds of ammunition—If any,” — Senior Retired U.S. Naval Officer

The U.S. Navy’s Great Missile Shortage

• “We’re at a dangerously low level from a stockpile perspective,” — Navy Secretary John Phelan

The U.S. Navy’s Great Missile Shortage

The U.S. Navy's missile shortage presents a critical challenge to its operational readiness and strategic deterrence capabilities. With rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the potential for conflict with China, addressing this issue is imperative for maintaining national security. The Navy must explore options for surge funding, multi-year buys, and supplier expansion to rectify the current deficiencies in its missile inventory.

The U.S. Navy’s Great Missile Shortage