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Caerphilly Byelection Reveals Polling Flaws, Reform Falls Short

11/2/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The Caerphilly byelection on October 23 exposed polling inaccuracies after a Survation forecast predicted Reform would win at 42%, while Plaid Cymru won 47% and Reform finished at 36%.
Labour and the Conservatives underperformed relative to predictions.
Sixty-nine percent of Caerphilly residents identified as Welsh, limiting Reform's appeal as an English nationalist party.
Pollsters may need to adjust methods to account for national identity in future surveys.

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Story summary

The Caerphilly byelection on October 23 exposed polling inaccuracies after a Survation forecast predicted Reform would win at 42%, while Plaid Cymru won 47% and Reform finished at 36%.
Labour and the Conservatives underperformed relative to predictions.
Sixty-nine percent of Caerphilly residents identified as Welsh, limiting Reform's appeal as an English nationalist party.
Pollsters may need to adjust methods to account for national identity in future surveys.