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RBA's Unemployment Forecast Sparks Concerns Over Job Market Weakness

11/7/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revised its unemployment forecast to 4.4% by end-2027, with the current rate at 4.5%.
Analysts say the RBA underestimates weakness in Australia's job market, which has been artificially supported by government-funded jobs in social protection.
Recent data show stagnant employment and declining job ads, signaling weaker labor demand.
The RBA's belief in a stable unemployment rate appears misplaced given these indicators.

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Story summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revised its unemployment forecast to 4.4% by end-2027, with the current rate at 4.5%.
Analysts say the RBA underestimates weakness in Australia's job market, which has been artificially supported by government-funded jobs in social protection.
Recent data show stagnant employment and declining job ads, signaling weaker labor demand.
The RBA's belief in a stable unemployment rate appears misplaced given these indicators.