Morocco's Strategic Position in the Western Sahara Conflict

The Western Sahara conflict, which has persisted since Spain's withdrawal in 1975, marks its 50th anniversary amid significant geopolitical shifts. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted Resolution 2797 on October 31, 2025, which for the first time explicitly endorsed Morocco's Autonomy Plan as the most viable solution to the dispute. This resolution has been interpreted as a pivotal moment, consolidating Morocco's position and diminishing the Polisario Front's influence.

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Morocco's Autonomy Plan, first proposed to the UN in 2007, aims to establish a local governance framework for Western Sahara while maintaining Moroccan sovereignty over defense and foreign affairs. The plan has garnered support from a majority of UN member states, including permanent Security Council members such as the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. The recent UNSC resolution has been described as a historic endorsement of this approach, signaling a shift in international dynamics surrounding the conflict.

Sovereignty and Growth: Morocco highlights Sahara’s role in continental integration

In contrast, the Polisario Front, which seeks an independent Sahrawi state, has faced increasing isolation. The Elcano Royal Institute's report indicates that the Polisario is now recognized by only 47 countries, a significant decline from 84. The group's attempts to assert military relevance through provocations have been criticized as ineffective, with the UNSC classifying the conflict as "low-intensity." The recent U.S. congressional proposal to designate the Polisario as a terrorist organization further complicates its position.

Polisario is digging its own grave after UNSC resolution 2797 – The North Africa Post

The UNSC's Resolution 2797 was adopted with 11 votes in favor, while Russia, China, and Pakistan abstained, reflecting a lack of consensus on the issue. Algeria's absence from the vote has been interpreted as a sign of its waning commitment to the Polisario cause. The resolution does not explicitly rule out self-determination but suggests that a genuine referendum is increasingly unlikely. Staffan de Mistura, the UN Secretary-General's Personal Envoy for the Sahara, emphasized that the autonomy proposal will serve as the foundation for future negotiations, marking a departure from previous diplomatic approaches.

Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, basis for Sahara talks- UN Envoy says – The North Africa Post

Critics of the resolution, including Algeria, argue that it undermines the self-determination of the Sahrawi people. Algeria's UN ambassador, Amar Bendjama, asserted that the resolution disregards the Polisario's role in the conflict, emphasizing that their opinions must be considered in any negotiations. The Polisario Front has also expressed its intent to assess the resolution's implications before making an official statement.

Polisario is digging its own grave after UNSC resolution 2797 – The North Africa Post

As Morocco commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Green March and the 70th anniversary of its independence, the Kingdom positions itself as a key player in African security and development. The endorsement of its autonomy plan is seen as a pathway to regional integration and stability. King Mohammed VI has called this moment a "victorious chapter" in Morocco's history, aiming to transform the southern provinces into engines of development and cooperation. The future of the Western Sahara conflict now hinges on the engagement of all parties in meaningful negotiations based on the autonomy framework.

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