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Holiday Retail Sales to Hit $1 Trillion Amid Caution

11/9/2025

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Story summary
  • National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday retail sales will rise 3.7% to 4.2% and reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion.
  • NRF President Matthew Shay notes consumer spending remains strong, driven by gift purchases, despite tariffs, inflation, and a shutdown.
  • Retailers are expected to hire fewer seasonal workers this year, between 265,000 and 365,000, down from 442,000 in 2024.
  • Consumers are more price-sensitive, prioritizing gifts and cutting back on nonessential items.