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US-China Trade Truce: Fragile Peace or Market Turmoil?

11/12/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Morgan Stanley warns that a temporary US-China trade truce has eased investor fears but remains fragile, recommending defensive strategies to mitigate risks.
Jenny Zheng of Morgan Stanley says the trade relationship could deteriorate again, keeping negotiations ongoing.
Base case envisions a one-year truce with minor disruptions.
Bear case envisions a truce collapse causing market turmoil.
Bull case envisions China shifting toward consumption, boosting its economy.

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Story summary

Morgan Stanley warns that a temporary US-China trade truce has eased investor fears but remains fragile, recommending defensive strategies to mitigate risks.
Jenny Zheng of Morgan Stanley says the trade relationship could deteriorate again, keeping negotiations ongoing.
Base case envisions a one-year truce with minor disruptions.
Bear case envisions a truce collapse causing market turmoil.
Bull case envisions China shifting toward consumption, boosting its economy.