Full Breakdown
IEA Forecasts Continued Growth in Global Oil and Gas Demand Until 2050
11/13/2025, 1:11:04 AM
Overview of the IEA's New Projections
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its outlook on global oil and gas demand, predicting that consumption may continue to rise until 2050. This marks a significant departure from previous forecasts that anticipated a peak in fossil fuel use by the end of this decade. The IEA's latest report, released during the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, indicates that under current government policies, oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, a 13% increase from 2024 levels.
Key Scenarios and Their Implications
The IEA's report outlines three scenarios: the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), and a Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario. The CPS, which has been reintroduced after a five-year hiatus, assumes that existing policies will remain unchanged, leading to a steady rise in fossil fuel consumption. In contrast, the STEPS scenario, which incorporates proposed but not yet enacted policies, suggests that oil demand may peak around 2030.
Fatih Birol, the IEA's Executive Director, emphasized that the CPS reflects the growing uncertainties in the political and economic landscape, particularly under the influence of U.S. energy policies. The report highlights that the global energy demand is expected to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, driven by sectors such as data centers and artificial intelligence.
Criticism and Opposition
The IEA's updated projections have drawn criticism from environmental advocates and some analysts who argue that the agency is underestimating the potential for renewable energy adoption. Critics contend that the CPS relies on conservative assumptions regarding electric vehicle (EV) adoption and fails to account for the rapid advancements in clean technologies. OPEC has also expressed concerns, warning that premature predictions of peak oil demand could lead to underinvestment in new oil projects, potentially resulting in supply shortages.
Official Statements & Responses
In response to the report, Kaisa Kosonen, a senior policy adviser at Greenpeace Nordic, stated, “We need to speed up and scale up, and governments at COP30 must now agree on a global response plan to urgently bridge the 1.5°C ambition gap.” The IEA's analysis has been described as a sobering reminder of the challenges ahead in meeting climate goals, with projections indicating that global temperatures could rise to nearly 3°C above pre-industrial levels under the CPS.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The main reason we have two new scenarios is the growing uncertainties in the political, economy and energy context.” — Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
- “The IEA’s bold assertions have had a rendezvous with reality,” — OPEC Secretariat
What's Next
As the world grapples with these projections, the focus will shift to the upcoming COP30 discussions, where delegates from around 200 countries will seek to address the challenges of climate change and energy security. The IEA's report underscores the urgent need for governments to enhance their commitments to clean energy and climate goals to avoid the most severe impacts of global warming.
In summary, the IEA's latest outlook presents a complex picture of the future of global energy demand, highlighting the interplay between current policies, technological advancements, and the pressing need for climate action.
