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NFIB Optimism Plummets to Six-Month Low in October

11/12/2025

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Summary

Story summary

In October 2025, the NFIB optimism index fell to 98.2, a six-month low.
The decline is driven by a 9-point drop in owners reporting stronger earnings, linked to weaker sales.
The NFIB uncertainty index declined to 88, the lowest reading of the year.
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg says labor quality remains a challenge as firms struggle to fill positions.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 financial crisis, marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, triggered a global economic downturn. By 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 10%, and the NFIB optimism index fell to 81.1, reflecting deep business pessimism. Today’s decline to 98.2 echoes these concerns, highlighting ongoing challenges in labor quality and economic recovery.

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Story summary

In October 2025, the NFIB optimism index fell to 98.2, a six-month low.
The decline is driven by a 9-point drop in owners reporting stronger earnings, linked to weaker sales.
The NFIB uncertainty index declined to 88, the lowest reading of the year.
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg says labor quality remains a challenge as firms struggle to fill positions.

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