Full Breakdown
Global Oil and Gas Demand Projections: A Shift in the IEA's Outlook
11/13/2025, 9:11:47 PM
Overview of the IEA's New Projections
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its 2025 World Energy Outlook, indicating that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. This marks a significant departure from previous forecasts that anticipated a peak in fossil fuel consumption by the end of this decade. Under the "Current Policies Scenario" (CPS), the IEA projects oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, approximately 13% higher than 2024 levels. Additionally, global energy demand is expected to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, driven largely by the needs of data centers and artificial intelligence technologies.
Key Factors Influencing Demand
The IEA's revised outlook reflects existing government policies rather than aspirational climate targets. This shift comes amid political pressures, particularly from the United States, where the Trump administration encouraged increased oil and gas production. The IEA had previously predicted that oil demand would peak this decade under the Biden administration's climate policies. However, the current report has eliminated the "pledges scenario," citing insufficient new commitments from countries to form a reliable picture of future demand.
Implications for Climate Goals
The IEA's projections suggest that the world is unlikely to meet its climate targets, particularly the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In all scenarios presented, including the CPS, the IEA warns that temperatures are expected to rise significantly, with the CPS scenario indicating a potential increase of up to 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100. This underscores the urgent need for accelerated clean energy adoption and the implementation of carbon capture technologies to mitigate climate change impacts.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics of the IEA's new projections argue that they underestimate the potential for renewable energy growth and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Environmental advocates emphasize that the IEA's assumptions about the stagnation of technological advancements in renewables and EVs are overly conservative. They call for immediate global action to bridge the gap between current policies and climate ambitions, particularly as the COP30 climate summit approaches.
Official Statements & Responses
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated, “With energy security front and center for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness, and climate change.” This reflects the agency's recognition of the complex interplay between energy security and climate commitments.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Under current policies, oil demand is now projected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050 about 13% higher than 2024 levels.” — International Energy Agency
- “We need to speed up and scale up and governments at COP30 must now agree on a global response plan to urgently bridge the 1.5 C ambition gap,” — Kaisa Kosonen, Greenpeace Nordic
- “no single country can stop the energy transition” — David Tong, Oil Change International
- “It’s not even representative of the market realities around renewables acceleration right now around the world.” — Critic of IEA's projections
What's Next
As global leaders prepare for the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, the IEA's outlook will serve as a critical backdrop for discussions on energy policy and climate action. The agency's findings highlight the need for a coordinated response to address the growing gap between current energy policies and climate goals, emphasizing the importance of transitioning to renewable energy sources while ensuring energy security.
