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IEA Predicts 4 Million Barrel Oil Surplus by 2026

11/14/2025

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Story summary

International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a 4 million barrels per day oil surplus by 2026 due to slower demand growth.
Even as major oil producers pause export increases, supply is expected to outpace demand, per the IEA's outlook, with COP30 talks in Brazil highlighting renewables doubling in five years.
The outlook includes a controversial scenario predicting oil demand growth through 2050, which critics say underestimates electric-vehicle adoption in Asia.

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Story summary

International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a 4 million barrels per day oil surplus by 2026 due to slower demand growth.
Even as major oil producers pause export increases, supply is expected to outpace demand, per the IEA's outlook, with COP30 talks in Brazil highlighting renewables doubling in five years.
The outlook includes a controversial scenario predicting oil demand growth through 2050, which critics say underestimates electric-vehicle adoption in Asia.