Full Breakdown
Rising Costs of Thanksgiving Dinner: Analyzing the Factors Behind Price Increases
11/18/2025, 8:17:10 AM
Overview of Price Increases
Thanksgiving 2025 is expected to be more expensive for American consumers, with significant price hikes across various grocery items. According to the Department of Agriculture, wholesale turkey prices have surged by 40% compared to the previous year, while beef prices have risen nearly 15%. The overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal, including a 20-pound turkey and 17 accompaniments, has increased by 18% in New York, reaching approximately $158.74.
Key Factors Driving Price Increases
Several factors contribute to the rising costs of Thanksgiving dinner. The avian influenza outbreak has severely impacted turkey production, with over 7 million birds lost this year, particularly in Minnesota, the leading turkey-producing state. Additionally, increased feed costs, which account for 60-70% of a producer's operating expenses, have been exacerbated by tariffs imposed during President Donald Trump's administration. These tariffs have affected the prices of essential feed ingredients, further driving up costs for poultry producers.
Specific Price Changes
Consumers are facing steep increases in the prices of traditional Thanksgiving items. For instance, yams have seen a staggering 188% price increase, while butter is up 58% and a 5-pound bag of flour has risen by 40%. Canned goods, such as cranberry sauce, have also become more expensive, with some items increasing by over 7% from last year. However, turkey prices have remained relatively stable, with some retailers offering promotions to attract shoppers.
Official Statements & Responses
David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, noted that while the rollback of certain tariffs by President Trump may help moderate price increases, it will not lead to a significant decrease in prices. He emphasized that tariffs are not the sole cause of rising grocery costs, which are also influenced by inflation and supply chain issues.
Criticism & Opposition
Consumers have expressed frustration over the rising costs. Shoppers in New York have reported sticker shock at grocery stores, with many feeling the burden of increased prices. One shopper remarked, “I put five items on the [counter] and it’s like $70. What just happened?” This sentiment reflects a broader concern among consumers about affordability during the holiday season.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While some sources indicate that turkey prices have remained stable, others report significant increases in the cost of turkey due to market pressures. For example, Purdue University's analysis suggests that a 15-pound turkey could cost around $30, representing a 75% increase since October 2024. This discrepancy highlights the complexities of the poultry market and the varying impacts of tariffs and disease outbreaks.
What's Next
As the holiday approaches, experts recommend that consumers plan their meals carefully and consider purchasing fresh produce and store brands to mitigate costs. Retailers are also expected to continue offering promotions on turkeys and other staples to attract budget-conscious shoppers.
Verbatim Quotes
- “By removing the tariffs, what we're doing is we're slowing down the increase in the price of many of these goods,” — David Ortega, Food Economist, Michigan State University
- “They all see each other after summer break, which is great, but then they come together and they get that first cold.” — Carol Cardona, University of Minnesota
- “It is common to see very deep discounts on turkeys with the expectation that shoppers will then purchase much of the remaining goods for Thanksgiving dinner once they are in the store,” — Ricky Volpe, Professor, Cal Poly Agribusiness Department
