Democrats Gain Significant Advantage Ahead of 2026 Midterms

A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted from November 10-13, 2025, reveals a notable shift in voter sentiment as the 2026 midterm elections approach. The survey indicates that Democrats hold a 14-point lead over Republicans, with 55% of respondents favoring Democratic candidates compared to 41% for Republicans. This marks the largest Democratic advantage in congressional ballot preferences since 2017. Among independent voters, the gap is even more pronounced, with Democrats leading by 33 points.

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President Donald Trump's approval rating has plummeted to 39%, the lowest since the aftermath of the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Nearly 60% of respondents attribute blame for the government shutdown to either Trump or congressional Republicans. The poll highlights a significant disconnect between Trump's priorities and voter concerns, with 57% of Americans identifying lowering prices as the administration's top priority, far surpassing immigration, which garnered only 16%.

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The poll also underscores a broader disillusionment with U.S. institutions. Confidence in Congress is particularly low, with 80% of respondents expressing little to no trust in the legislative body. The presidency fares slightly better, with 61% lacking confidence in the office. This sentiment extends to both major political parties, with 71% of Americans expressing low confidence in the Democratic Party and 65% in the Republican Party.

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The survey reveals a stark perception of dishonesty and closed-mindedness among political parties. Over 80% of Republicans and Democrats view members of the opposing party as "closed-minded," and more than 70% from both sides consider the other party "dishonest." Independents tend to view Democrats more favorably, with a majority describing them as "mostly honest," while Republicans are seen as "mostly dishonest" by 54% of independents.

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Historically, Democrats have needed a substantial advantage on the congressional ballot to predict success in midterm elections. The current polling data suggests a potential repeat of the 2018 midterms, where Democrats gained 40 House seats. However, the landscape remains complicated by redistricting efforts that have reduced the number of competitive seats, making significant gains less likely.

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• “The parties don't speak to me anymore.” — Wayne Dowdy, Poll Respondent

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• “They're not in tune with anyone on the ground,” — Nicole Stokes, Trump Voter

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As the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, the political landscape appears to favor Democrats, driven largely by Trump's declining approval ratings and widespread dissatisfaction with key institutions. The implications of these trends will be closely monitored as both parties prepare for the upcoming electoral battle.

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