Impact of Government Shutdown on Key Economic Data Releases

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced the cancellation of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a critical measure of inflation, due to the recent government shutdown. The BLS stated that the shutdown hindered its ability to collect necessary survey data, which is essential for accurately calculating the CPI. The report was originally scheduled for release on November 7 but has now been postponed, with November's CPI data set to be released on December 18, after the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision on December 10.

CNBCReutersNew York Times

The absence of the October CPI data presents challenges for the Federal Reserve as it deliberates on interest rate adjustments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns about operating in a "data fog," indicating that the lack of comprehensive data could complicate monetary policy decisions. Despite this, some Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, suggested that there may still be "room for a further adjustment in the near term," hinting at the possibility of another interest rate cut.

CNBC

In addition to the CPI report, the BLS also announced that the October jobs report would not be released independently. Instead, it will be combined with the November jobs report, which is now scheduled for mid-December. This change is expected to reflect negative job growth due to the departure of over 100,000 federal workers who participated in a deferred resignation program. The unemployment rate for October, derived from household surveys, will remain unknown as the BLS cannot retroactively collect this data.

Reuters

The Federal Reserve is experiencing a divide among its officials regarding the direction of interest rates. Some policymakers are advocating for a rate cut to address slowing job growth and potential increases in unemployment. Conversely, others express concern over rising inflation, exacerbated by tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, warning that further cuts could push inflation beyond the Fed's 2 percent target.

New York Times

The BLS emphasized that it is unable to retroactively collect the necessary survey data for the October reports, stating, "BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data." The agency plans to publish available nonsurvey data for October alongside the November data release. Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to evaluate the situation, with Powell noting, "This is a temporary state of affairs. And we're going to do our jobs, we're going to collect every scrap of data we can find."

Reuters

There is a notable discrepancy in the expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's next steps. While some market traders have reduced their expectations for a rate cut in December, others remain uncertain, reflecting the divided opinions within the Fed regarding the economic outlook.

CNBC

• “BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data.” — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Reuters

• “This is a temporary state of affairs. And we're going to do our jobs, we're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it,” — Jerome Powell, Fed Chair

CNBC

• “We are having trouble retrieving the article content.” — New York Times (contextual note)

New York Times

The situation remains fluid as the Federal Reserve prepares for its December meeting, with the implications of the government shutdown continuing to unfold.

New York Times