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U.S. Treasury Yields Drop Amid Rising Unemployment Concerns

11/21/2025

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Summary

Story summary

U.S. Treasury yields fell November 20, 2025, after unemployment rose to 4.4% in September despite 119,000 jobs added.
Traders price a 33% chance of Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
The ICE BofA MOVE Index reached a two-month high, signaling bond-market volatility.
Economists say stable unemployment suggests no Fed stimulus, while a rise could signal distress, and labor data will shape rate-cut expectations as inflation stays above target for policymakers.

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Story summary

U.S. Treasury yields fell November 20, 2025, after unemployment rose to 4.4% in September despite 119,000 jobs added.
Traders price a 33% chance of Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
The ICE BofA MOVE Index reached a two-month high, signaling bond-market volatility.
Economists say stable unemployment suggests no Fed stimulus, while a rise could signal distress, and labor data will shape rate-cut expectations as inflation stays above target for policymakers.