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J.P. Morgan Forecasts 6.4% Returns Amid Economic Resilience

11/21/2025

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Summary

Story summary

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) forecast a 6.4% annual return for a USD 60/40 portfolio over 10–15 years.
Diversification with alternatives is emphasized, private equity at 10.2% and US core real estate at 8.2%.
Global equities are projected to yield 7%, with Asia ex-Japan at 7.9% and Japanese equities at 8.8%.
The report notes resilience amid economic nationalism and highlights technology and AI as drivers.

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Story summary

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) forecast a 6.4% annual return for a USD 60/40 portfolio over 10–15 years.
Diversification with alternatives is emphasized, private equity at 10.2% and US core real estate at 8.2%.
Global equities are projected to yield 7%, with Asia ex-Japan at 7.9% and Japanese equities at 8.8%.
The report notes resilience amid economic nationalism and highlights technology and AI as drivers.