Full Breakdown
Thanksgiving Weather Forecast for Memphis 2025
11/22/2025, 1:53:56 AM
Overview of Thanksgiving Weather Predictions
As Thanksgiving approaches, Memphis is set to experience a warmer-than-normal holiday week, with forecasts indicating mild temperatures and minimal precipitation. The National Weather Service, AccuWeather, and The Old Farmer's Almanac all predict above-average temperatures for the region, suggesting that outdoor Thanksgiving gatherings may be feasible this year.
Detailed Weather Forecast
According to AccuWeather, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend will feature partly sunny skies with a low chance of rain. The specific forecast for the week is as follows:
- Wednesday, November 26: Low of 47°F, high of 64°F, with a 2% chance of rain.
- Thanksgiving Day (November 27): Low of 39°F, high of 55°F, with a 0% chance of rain.
- Black Friday (November 28): Low of 36°F, high of 57°F, with a 0% chance of rain.
- Saturday, November 29: Low of 41°F, high of 59°F, with a 25% chance of rain.
The Old Farmer's Almanac also supports this outlook, forecasting a warm and sunny Thanksgiving week across Tennessee.
Historical Weather Context
In contrast to the expected conditions for 2025, previous Thanksgivings in Memphis have seen varied weather patterns. For instance, in 2023, the holiday recorded a high of 59°F with a low of 39°F and an average temperature of 47°F. In 2022, the high was 59°F, but there was a quarter-inch of rain. The trend shows that this year's forecast is significantly warmer and drier compared to the last few years.
Criticism & Opposition
While many are looking forward to the pleasant weather, some meteorologists caution that the predictions could change as the week progresses. The National Weather Service has indicated a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation from November 24 through November 28, which could disrupt travel plans for the holiday.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
There are discrepancies in the forecasts regarding the likelihood of rain. While AccuWeather predicts a low chance of rain on Thanksgiving Day, other reports suggest a potential for unsettled weather leading into the weekend, with rain expected to return late in the week. This uncertainty highlights the need for travelers to stay updated on the latest weather conditions as Thanksgiving approaches.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Warm temperatures are expected through at least Friday, with cooler temperatures thereafter into next week.” — National Weather Service
- “Thanksgiving weather forecast from The Old Farmer's Almanac The Southeast will likely have a chilly but sunny start to the week, giving way to milder temperatures by Thanksgiving.” — The Old Farmer's Almanac
- “The forecast continues to suggest an unsettled pattern; Thursday night will likely see showers and possible storms before 9 pm transitioning to a higher probability of adverse weather after midnight, with the temperature dropping to about 63 degrees, and although the wind speeds will be moderate—from the south southeast at 5 to 10 mph—residents should prepare for disruptions and ensure they keep abreast of the latest weather updates.” — National Weather Service
In summary, the Thanksgiving weather forecast for Memphis in 2025 indicates a warm and mostly dry holiday, contrasting with the wetter conditions of previous years. However, travelers are advised to remain vigilant as weather patterns may shift closer to the holiday.
