The Data Deficit in Climate Impact Assessment

Recent discussions surrounding climate change have highlighted a significant gap in data regarding the impacts of extreme heat, particularly in vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa. A 2020 study revealed that while many believe cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related fatalities, the data supporting this claim is severely limited. The study, which utilized datasets from 750 locations across 43 countries, found that sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of cold-related deaths, yet it only included South Africa, leaving out critical data from other hot regions.

The Guardian

The international disaster database EM-DAT has recorded only two heatwaves in sub-Saharan Africa from 1900 to 2019, resulting in 71 deaths, compared to 83 heatwaves in Europe that caused over 140,000 deaths during the same period. This discrepancy raises questions about the credibility of claims that fewer people die from heat in Africa than elsewhere. The lack of weather stations in Africa exacerbates this issue, with only 33 stations for 1.5 billion people, compared to 565 in the US and Europe, where 1.1 billion reside. This underreporting may lead to a significant undercount of heat-related deaths, as noted by epidemiologist Kristie Ebi, who suggested that the official US estimate of heat-related deaths is likely a tenfold undercount.

The Guardian

The methodology of the study in question has been critiqued for its reliance on data from wealthier, cooler countries with robust health systems. Professor Antonio Gasparrini, one of the authors, acknowledged that while the extrapolation was moderate in some areas, it was extreme in others, particularly in regions with sparse data. This raises concerns about the accuracy of the findings in hotter, less-researched areas.

The Guardian

The implications of these data gaps extend beyond mere statistics. The lack of comprehensive data hampers efforts to understand the full impact of climate change on vulnerable populations, particularly in developing nations. As highlighted in a recent paper published in *Nature*, the deaths caused by rainfall in cities like Mumbai are vastly underreported, particularly affecting marginalized communities. This underfunding of data collection reflects a broader indifference from powerful governments towards the lives of those most affected by climate change.

The Guardian

Critics argue that the global underfunding of climate data collection serves as an indicator of how little attention is paid to the lives of vulnerable populations. The disparity in funding for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts is stark; rich countries have pledged only $788.8 million to the UN’s fund for climate-vulnerable nations, amounting to just 44 cents per citizen in these regions. This raises ethical questions about accountability and the moral obligation of wealthier nations to address the consequences of their actions.

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• “in some cases the degree of extrapolation (especially geographical) was huge, and we cannot rule out that the model works less well in some regions”.” — Prof. Antonio Gasparrini

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• “Coverage tends to be worse in rural areas, exactly where livelihoods may be most vulnerable to climate variability and climate change.” — Tufa Dinku

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• “We don’t do body counts on other people.” — Donald Rumsfeld

The Guardian

The significant gaps in climate data, particularly regarding heat-related deaths in vulnerable regions, highlight a pressing need for improved data collection and analysis. Without accurate information, it remains challenging to address the impacts of climate change effectively and to hold responsible parties accountable for their contributions to the crisis.

The Guardian