Turkey to Host COP31 Amid Concerns Over Authoritarianism

The United Nations climate officials announced that Turkey will host the 2026 Conference of Parties (COP31), marking the fourth time in five years that the climate talks will occur in a country under authoritarian rule. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been criticized for his increasingly authoritarian governance, which has seen a decline in democratic freedoms. The decision followed a bidding process in which Australia and Turkey competed, ultimately resulting in Australia withdrawing its bid. Under the agreement, Australia will lead the COP31 presidency while Turkey provides the venue, likely in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya.

Recent COPs have been held in countries with autocratic governments, including COP29 in Azerbaijan, COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, and COP27 in Egypt. This trend raises concerns about the influence of authoritarianism on the focus and outcomes of climate negotiations. Rachel Cleetus, senior director for the Climate and Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, noted that the rise of authoritarianism affects global geopolitics and multilateral engagement.

Turkey's climate record is mixed. While the country has made strides in renewable energy and established net-zero goals, it remains the largest user of coal-fired power and is promoting further reliance on natural gas. The Climate Action Tracker has rated Turkey's climate plans as "critically insufficient," indicating a significant gap between its intentions and the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. Freedom House assigns Turkey a score of 33, categorizing it as "not free," which contrasts sharply with Brazil's score of 72, indicating a more open political environment.

The Australian government expressed disappointment over losing the hosting rights but emphasized its commitment to leading negotiations at COP31. Energy Minister Chris Bowen will spearhead these discussions, while a pre-COP event will be hosted by a Pacific Island nation to raise funds for climate mitigation. Critics within Australia, including members of the opposition and environmental groups, have voiced concerns about the implications of hosting the conference in Turkey, given its authoritarian governance and questionable climate policies.

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There are discrepancies regarding the extent of Australia’s efforts to secure the hosting rights. Some sources indicate that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was personally invested in hosting COP31, while others suggest that his cabinet was less enthusiastic, fearing the potential backlash over hosting costs amid rising domestic energy prices. The final decision to concede hosting rights to Turkey has been framed as a strategic compromise, but the effectiveness of this approach remains debated.

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• “Unfortunately, authoritarianism is on the rise around the world and that affects many aspects of geopolitics and multilateral engagement,” — Rachel Cleetus, Senior Director, Union of Concerned Scientists

• “A democracy can only thrive when facts matter, freedoms are protected, and people have trust in their government and institutions.” — Unknown

The decision to host COP31 in Turkey raises questions about the future of climate negotiations under authoritarian regimes. As the global community grapples with the challenges of climate change, the influence of political governance on these discussions will be closely scrutinized. The upcoming COP31 will serve as a critical test of the effectiveness of multilateral climate action in an increasingly polarized political landscape.