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U.S. Growth to Hit 2% by 2026, Risks Loom

11/26/2025

47 5 Full Breakdown

Center

U.S. Growth Projections

U.S. growth is projected to rise to 2% in 2026 in a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey of 42 economists.
Growth is driven by higher personal spending and business investment.
Growth could be hindered by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, identified as a significant risk.
Job growth is expected to average about 64,000 per month.
Unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5%.

Left

Canada's Economic Outlook

Canada's Q3 GDP is expected to be flat, signaling a bleak outlook versus the United States.
Jack Manley of J.P. Morgan notes Canada's weak labor market and sensitivity to higher rates.
In 2025, the TSX outperformed the S&P 500, with analysts expecting the trend to reverse in 2026.
Philip Petursson of IG Wealth Management says stimulus and AI spending support growth, while U.S. policy changes and trade uncertainties headwinds for Canada.

History

Historical Context

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, signed by President Barack Obama, allocated $787 billion to stimulate the economy after the 2008 financial crisis, which saw unemployment peak at 10% in October 2009. This act aimed to create jobs and invest in infrastructure, reflecting ongoing economic challenges that continue to influence U.S. and Canadian economic interdependence today.

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U.S. Growth Projections

U.S. growth is projected to rise to 2% in 2026 in a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey of 42 economists.
Growth is driven by higher personal spending and business investment.
Growth could be hindered by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, identified as a significant risk.
Job growth is expected to average about 64,000 per month.
Unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5%.

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