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US Economy to Grow 2% Amid Tariff Threats

11/25/2025

45 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Economies Project Growth

The United States economy is projected to grow 2% in 2026, led by personal spending and business investment, despite sluggish employment gains.
Economists warn that new import tariffs could hinder growth by up to 0.75%.
Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry raised its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4%, citing strong manufacturing and AI-related exports.
They project 2026 growth at 1%–3% due to tariff impacts and global economic uncertainties.

Summary

BEA Delays GDP

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) canceled the advance GDP estimate for the third quarter because of the government shutdown, delaying the October 30 release.
The BEA will publish the initial GDP estimate on December 23, nearly two months after the planned release.
The shutdown lasted from October 1 to mid-November and delayed several economic reports used to gauge the economy.

History

Historical Context

The 2013 U.S. government shutdown, lasting 16 days, stemmed from a standoff over the Affordable Care Act, resulting in approximately 800,000 federal employees furloughed and costing the economy about $24 billion. This event highlighted the detrimental effects of shutdowns on economic stability, as seen again in the 2018-2019 shutdown, which also significantly impacted GDP growth and investor confidence.

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Economies Project Growth

The United States economy is projected to grow 2% in 2026, led by personal spending and business investment, despite sluggish employment gains.
Economists warn that new import tariffs could hinder growth by up to 0.75%.
Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry raised its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4%, citing strong manufacturing and AI-related exports.
They project 2026 growth at 1%–3% due to tariff impacts and global economic uncertainties.

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