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NRF Predicts Record $1 Trillion Holiday Spending in 2025

11/27/2025

Center

Retailers Anticipate Surge

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects 186.9 million shoppers from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday in the 2025 holiday season, up from 183.4 million.
NRF projects spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, the first season to exceed $1 trillion.
Shoppers remain cautious due to inflation and uncertainties.
Local businesses urge shopping small, with Small Business Saturday, as retailers prepare for in-store and online shopping; Black Friday remains the popular day.

Right

JPMorgan Warns Inflation

A JPMorgan report finds inflation is eroding U.S. incomes ahead of the 2025 holiday season, potentially limiting holiday spending.
The report shows median income growth for individuals aged 25 to 54 is only 1.6% after inflation.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021.
Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April, with 1% of consumers rating business conditions as 'good'.

History

Historical Context

The Great Recession in 2008 significantly impacted U.S. consumer behavior, with the National Retail Federation reporting a 10% drop in holiday sales. This shift led to evolving shopping patterns, including the rise of online sales. Today, projections indicate over 186.9 million shoppers and more than $1 trillion in spending, highlighting the resilience of local businesses amid economic uncertainties.

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Retailers Anticipate Surge

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects 186.9 million shoppers from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday in the 2025 holiday season, up from 183.4 million.
NRF projects spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, the first season to exceed $1 trillion.
Shoppers remain cautious due to inflation and uncertainties.
Local businesses urge shopping small, with Small Business Saturday, as retailers prepare for in-store and online shopping; Black Friday remains the popular day.

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