Full Breakdown
UK Faces Gas Supply Crisis Amid Declining North Sea Production
11/27/2025, 1:11:02 PM
Declining North Sea Gas Output
A recent report from the North Sea Transition Authority (Neso) indicates that the United Kingdom's gas production from the North Sea is projected to plummet by over 80%, decreasing from 27 billion cubic metres (bcm) to just 5 bcm by 2035. This significant decline raises concerns about the UK's energy security, as the country is expected to become increasingly reliant on gas imports from Norway, the United States, and Qatar. The report warns that during peak demand periods in the 2030s, the UK's dependency on imports could exceed 90%.
The report highlights a critical vulnerability in the UK's gas supply chain, particularly if major infrastructure, such as pipelines from Norway or liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, were to fail. Currently, Norway supplies nearly half of the UK's gas, but its production is also anticipated to halve by 2035.
Criticism of Government Policy
The findings of the Neso report have drawn sharp criticism from various political figures. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, previously pledged to reduce the UK's reliance on imports and "petrostates," advocating for a transition to clean power by 2030. However, critics argue that the current government policies, particularly those implemented by Miliband and Rachel Reeves, have led to a decline in domestic gas production. Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, stated that the report serves as a "wake-up call" regarding the ongoing gas supply crisis.
Analysts have expressed skepticism about the Neso forecasts, suggesting they may be overly optimistic. Chris Wheaton from Stifel predicts a 70% decline in gas production by 2030, potentially leading to a shortage of LNG import capacity as early as 2031. He emphasizes that maximizing domestic gas production is essential for ensuring supply security.
Implications for Energy Security
The implications of declining North Sea gas production are profound, especially considering that 27 million homes in the UK depend on gas boilers for heating and hot water. The report predicts that even by 2035, when decarbonization efforts will be underway, winter gas demand could reach 422 million cubic metres per day (mcm/day). By that time, the North Sea's contribution to the gas supply will only account for about 20% of what is needed for the UK's gas-fired power stations.
Critics like Ashley Kelty from Panmure Liberum argue that the government's energy policy is misguided, prioritizing net-zero goals over energy security. Richard Tice, Reform UK's energy spokesman, contends that the crisis stems from poor policy decisions rather than geological factors, advocating for increased exploration and investment in UK oil and gas.
Verbatim Quotes
- “During periods of peak demand in the 2030s, we expect GB’s import dependency could rise above 90pc,” — Neso Report
- “This report should be a wake-up call. It shows that the UK is in the midst of a gas supply crisis made in Whitehall by Ed Miliband and Rachel Reeves, who have created an unprecedented, policy-driven decline of North Sea gas production.” — Claire Coutinho, Shadow Energy Secretary
- “We need to increase UK oil and gas exploration by reducing the energy profits levy and motivating investment with smarter regulation removing lots of unnecessary rules.” — Richard Tice, Reform UK Energy Spokesman
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
There is a discrepancy in forecasts regarding the future of gas production in the UK. While the Neso report suggests a decline to 5 bcm by 2035, Chris Wheaton from Stifel predicts a more severe reduction of 70% by 2030. Additionally, the potential impact of government policies on domestic production remains a contentious issue, with varying opinions on the effectiveness of current strategies.
