Economic Anxiety Shapes Holiday Spending in 2025

As the 2025 holiday shopping season approaches, many Americans express anxiety about the economy, primarily due to rising prices and an uncertain job market. Despite these concerns, economists predict a notable level of consumer spending, driven largely by wealthier households. Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Mastercard, anticipates a 3.6% increase in holiday spending compared to the previous year, indicating a potential resilience among consumers.

New York Times

Recent surveys reveal that nearly 80% of Americans acknowledge higher costs this year, with 40% planning to reduce their holiday spending. The CNBC|SurveyMonkey 2025 Small Business Saturday Survey highlights that 60% of those intending to cut back will do so primarily on gifts for others. Additionally, many respondents plan to dine out less and limit spending on entertainment and big-ticket items. Tariffs have also influenced consumer behavior, with 40% citing them as a reason for reduced holiday spending.

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The economic landscape has been significantly affected by tariffs and inflation, which have raised the cost of necessities. For instance, Grace Brown, a consumer from Charlotte, North Carolina, noted that her gift budget has shrunk due to rising prices. Similarly, Ryan, a retired law enforcement officer in Texas, expressed concern over his family's ability to afford holiday gifts, stating, “I’m scrambling to find some way to preserve some aspect of magic for them.”

The Guardian

While some forecasts suggest a decline in holiday spending—Deloitte estimates a 4% decrease—others indicate a more stable outlook. The National Retail Federation reports a slight decrease of 1.3% in planned spending compared to last year. This discrepancy reflects the varied experiences of consumers across different income levels, with wealthier households expected to maintain their spending habits, potentially offsetting declines among lower-income groups.

New York Times

The White House has attempted to mitigate concerns about the economy, proposing tariff-funded stimulus checks and the removal of certain import levies. However, many consumers remain skeptical. Jeffrey Larimore, a fixed-income retiree, remarked on the impact of tariffs on his spending, stating, “We have had to cut way back on our spending for the holiday.”

The Guardian

Critics of the current administration, particularly those affected by economic pressures, have voiced their frustrations. Shari Dunn from Oregon highlighted the broader instability beyond tariffs, saying, “It’s more than just tariffs – it’s everything. The instability and fear.” Additionally, some consumers are opting out of traditional holiday shopping altogether, participating in boycotts against major retail events like Black Friday.

The Guardian

• “We do expect a pretty solid holiday shopping season,” — Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist, Mastercard

New York Times

• “It’s kind of hard to have luxuries.” — Grace Brown, Consumer

The Guardian

• “I’m scrambling to find some way to preserve some aspect of magic for them,” — Ryan, Retired Law Enforcement Officer

The Guardian

• “Being on a fixed income, we have had to cut way back on our spending for the holiday,” — Jeffrey Larimore, Retiree

The Guardian

• “It’s more than just tariffs – it’s everything. The instability and fear,” — Shari Dunn, Consumer

The Guardian

As the holiday season unfolds, the interplay between economic anxiety and consumer spending will continue to shape the retail landscape in the United States.

CNBC