Iraq's Election Results: A West vs. Iran Showdown

The parliamentary elections held on November 11, 2023, in Iraq marked a significant moment in the country's political landscape. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition emerged as the largest faction, securing 1.3 million votes, which accounted for approximately 15% of the parliamentary seats, totaling 46 out of 329. In contrast, pro-Iran parties collectively won 121 seats, the largest share but insufficient to form a government independently. The political maneuvering that follows these elections is critical not only for Iraq but also for the geopolitical interests of the United States and China-Russia.

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According to Iraq’s 2005 Constitution, the newly elected parliament must convene within 15 days of the election results being verified. During this initial meeting, parliament will elect a speaker and two deputies, followed by the selection of a new president, traditionally a Kurdish politician. The president will then authorize the bloc with the most seats to form a cabinet led by its chosen prime minister. However, the process can be lengthy, sometimes extending up to a year, as seen in previous elections. Sudani's coalition, while part of the Shia-centric Coordination Framework, faces challenges due to the presence of various pro-Iran factions within the same framework.

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Sudani's government has been characterized by a shift towards Western alliances, evidenced by significant contracts awarded to Western oil firms such as TotalEnergies and BP. This rapprochement with the West has been perceived as a strategic move to keep Iraq out of the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. However, this shift has raised suspicions among pro-Iran factions, who view the presence of Western companies and their security personnel as a potential threat to their influence in Iraq.

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Despite his coalition's electoral success, Sudani faces criticism from within his own ranks, particularly regarding his stance on U.S. military presence in Iraq and his refusal to upgrade the Popular Mobilisation Forces to a permanent arm of the state. These decisions have led some allies in the Coordination Framework to perceive him as betraying their interests. To secure support for a potential second term, Sudani may need to recalibrate his approach and align more closely with pro-Iran sentiments.

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The outcome of the elections and the subsequent political developments will significantly impact Iraq's future direction. The balance of power between pro-Western and pro-Iran factions will shape not only domestic policies but also Iraq's role in the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. As the political process unfolds, the potential for a prime minister from the harder-line pro-Iran factions remains a possibility, which could alter Iraq's trajectory in the ongoing West vs. Iran showdown.

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• “By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise.” — High-ranking official from the Kremlin

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