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Tennessee Special Election Signals Shift in Voter Engagement

12/3/2025

50 11 Full Breakdown

Summary

Van Epps Victory

Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Tenn.) won the Tennessee 7th District special election by about nine points, a smaller margin than Trump’s 2024 22-point margin.
Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate, surpassed previous margins by 13 points.
Turnout was high, comparable to the 2022 midterms, signaling increased Democratic engagement.
Both parties are strategizing for 2026, with Democrats citing momentum and Republicans addressing voter discontent.

Summary

Van Epps Leads

A December 2 special election will fill Tennessee's 7th Congressional District seat vacated by Republican Mark Green.
Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate, and Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate, lead.
Van Epps leads Behn by about 2 percentage points, within the margin of error.
Turnout in the district, including Nashville and rural counties, will shape the result ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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Van Epps Victory

Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Tenn.) won the Tennessee 7th District special election by about nine points, a smaller margin than Trump’s 2024 22-point margin.
Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate, surpassed previous margins by 13 points.
Turnout was high, comparable to the 2022 midterms, signaling increased Democratic engagement.
Both parties are strategizing for 2026, with Democrats citing momentum and Republicans addressing voter discontent.

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