Full Breakdown
Inflation Trends in Pakistan: November 2025 Overview
12/2/2025, 3:11:15 PM
Current Inflation Rates and Trends
In November 2025, Pakistan's inflation rate edged lower to 6.1%, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This figure represents a slight decrease from October's 6.24% and remains within the finance ministry's projected range of 5-6%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a month-on-month inflation increase of 0.4%, down from 1.8% in October. Year-on-year, inflation has decreased significantly from nearly 30% a year ago, although food prices remain volatile due to supply shocks and previous flood damage.
Economic Indicators and Core Inflation
The PBS reported that non-food, non-energy inflation has decelerated, suggesting a reduction in underlying price pressures. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, slowed to 6.6% in urban areas, down from 7.5% in the previous month. In rural areas, core inflation eased to 8.2% from 8.4%. Despite these trends, food price inflation remains a concern, with urban food inflation at 5% and rural food inflation at 5.9%. The increase in food prices has been attributed to various factors, including a delayed sugar crushing season, which has led to a 39% rise in sugar prices compared to the previous year.
Official Responses and Economic Outlook
The State Bank of Pakistan has maintained its key policy interest rate at 11%, despite calls from business leaders and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to reduce it in line with declining inflation. Lt General Sarfraz Ahmad, National Coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, emphasized the need for interest rate adjustments, stating, "Interest rates must also be reduced." The Ministry of Finance remains cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, citing strengthening industrial activity and the implementation of economic reforms.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics argue that the central bank's decision to keep interest rates high does not reflect the current economic realities. The business community has expressed concerns that high interest rates hinder economic growth, particularly as inflation rates begin to stabilize. The World Bank has also revised its inflation forecast for Pakistan to 7.2% for the current fiscal year, slightly above the government's target.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
While the finance ministry projects inflation to remain within the 5-6% range, the PBS data indicates that the headline inflation rate is slightly above this upper band. Additionally, there are discrepancies in the reported impacts of summer floods on economic growth, with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb noting a half-percentage point reduction in growth due to these events.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If you look at foreign exchange reserves and the macro outlook, interest rates must also be reduced,” — Lt General Sarfraz Ahmad, National Coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council
- “It said that inflation was expected to remain in the range of 5% to 6% in November due to pressures on food prices and agricultural output, according to the monthly report of the ministry.” — Ministry of Finance
- “cannot keep interest rate permanently at 11% or 12%. Inflation is going down, and monetary policy must reflect the ground reality” — Lt General Sarfraz Ahmad
The current inflation landscape in Pakistan reflects a complex interplay of economic factors, with ongoing debates about monetary policy and its implications for growth and stability.
