Urban Sprawl Threatens Access to Clean Water by 2050

A recent study conducted by the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) in Vienna and the World Bank has revealed that urban sprawl could leave up to 220 million people without access to clean water by 2050. The research analyzed over 100 cities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, examining data from 183 million buildings and 125,000 household surveys. The study modeled three urban growth scenarios: compact, persistent, and horizontal. The findings indicate that horizontal sprawl would significantly reduce access to piped drinking water and sewage systems compared to a compact urban development approach.

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The study highlights that under the horizontal sprawl scenario, 220 million fewer people would have access to piped water, and 190 million fewer would have access to sewage systems by 2050. In addition, water bills in sprawling cities are approximately 75% higher than in compact cities, with residents on the urban fringe experiencing 40% less access to critical infrastructure compared to those living near the city center. The researchers emphasize that effective urban planning can enhance access to water and sanitation without requiring additional financial investment.

NewsweekUrban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050Urban Sprawl Puts Clean Water Access At RiskDavis & Shirtliff rolls out new tech to boost water access in East AfricaTamil Nadu Speeds Up Tap Water Access Under Jal Jeevan Mission

The analysis categorized urban growth into three scenarios:

Urban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050

1. Compact Growth: Densely filling existing areas, which could provide piped water to 220 million more people.

Urban Sprawl Puts Clean Water Access At Risk

2. Persistent Growth: Continuing current patterns, maintaining access rates.

Urban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050

3. Horizontal Sprawl: Spreading outward, which would actively reduce access to essential services.

Urban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050

The researchers found that cities with low sparseness, where most residents live close to the center, tend to have better access to water and sanitation services. For instance, Jakarta has over half of its population living centrally, while in Kigali, only 15% of residents live in the central area.

Urban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050

While the study advocates for compact urban planning, it acknowledges that densification alone is not a solution. Some densely populated areas, such as Kibera in Nairobi and Rocinha in Rio de Janeiro, remain underserved despite their proximity to urban centers. The researchers caution that simply increasing density without addressing existing inequalities may not improve water access.

Urban sprawl could deny 220 million people access to clean water by 2050

Rafael Prieto-Curiel, lead author of the study, stated, "Water scarcity gets a lot of attention, but urban form is something we can actually control through planning and policy." He emphasized that compact, walkable neighborhoods ensure that basic services are available to everyone, highlighting the importance of urban planning in addressing water access issues.

Newsweek

The findings of this study underscore the urgency for city planners to prioritize compact growth strategies. As urban populations in Africa and Asia are projected to surge dramatically by 2050, effective planning will be crucial in ensuring access to clean water and sanitation services. The study serves as a call to action for local governments and development agencies to integrate water utility investments with land-use planning to mitigate the risks associated with urban sprawl.

Newsweek