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US Sanctions Spark Uncertainty in Russian Oil Exports

12/5/2025

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Story summary
  • New US sanctions on Rosneft create uncertainty for Russian crude exports to China via Atasu–Alashankou, as Kazakhstan weighs KazTransOil sanctions.
  • If the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) grants a license for the pipeline, payments could shift to national currencies.
  • Without a license, Kazakhstan may halt transit to avoid secondary sanctions.
  • Russia's oil earnings decline amid a budget deficit and tightening conditions, with sanctions potentially pressuring its finances.