Full Breakdown
Pakistan Proposes New South Asian Bloc Amidst Regional Tensions
12/5/2025, 5:18:16 PM
Emergence of a New Regional Initiative
Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has announced a trilateral initiative involving Bangladesh and China, aimed at fostering regional cooperation and potentially creating an alternative bloc to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been hindered by longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan. Dar emphasized the need for collaboration over confrontation, stating that the initiative could be expanded to include other nations in South Asia and beyond. This proposal comes in the wake of deteriorating relations among South Asian countries, particularly following the ousting of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent tensions with India.
Background on SAARC's Challenges
SAARC, established in 1985, comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Despite its potential, the organization has struggled to achieve its goals due to the ongoing rivalry between India and Pakistan, which has led to the postponement of summits and a lack of consensus on key issues. The last SAARC summit took place in 2014, and the organization has been largely inactive since then. Analysts argue that without political willingness from India and Pakistan to separate regional cooperation from bilateral disputes, SAARC's functionality remains compromised.
Trade and Economic Implications
Trade within South Asia is notably low, accounting for only about 5% of the region's overall commerce, compared to 25% among ASEAN countries. The World Bank estimates that South Asian nations could triple their trade volume by reducing barriers. Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan has also declined significantly, with official trade dropping from $2.41 billion in 2017-2018 to $1.2 billion by 2024. The lack of regional connectivity and political tensions have been cited as major obstacles to enhancing trade relations.
Criticism and Viability of the Proposal
Experts have expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of Pakistan's proposal. Rabia Akhtar, director at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research, described the initiative as "more aspirational than operational," while others noted that bilateral and trilateral arrangements are likely to dominate regional cooperation in the near term. The success of the new bloc will depend on whether other South Asian countries perceive functional value in smaller, issue-focused groupings without incurring political costs with India.
Official Statements & Responses
Dar articulated a vision for a South Asia characterized by cooperation and economic synergy, stating, “Our own national development needs and regional priorities cannot – and should not – be held hostage to anyone’s rigidity.” He acknowledged the stagnation of dialogue with India, which has been unresolved for over 11 years.
What's Next?
The potential for this new bloc hinges on the willingness of countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and Bhutan to engage in exploratory discussions on connectivity and economic resilience. However, India’s sensitivities and geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan and China may limit formal participation in the proposed initiative.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have opposed … zero-sum approaches and consistently stressed the imperative of cooperation rather than confrontation,” — Ishaq Dar, Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan
- “This proposal, ambitious though, is critically needed,” — Shahab Enam Khan, Executive Director, Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs
- “If the two countries [India and Pakistan] were able to identify even limited avenues for cooperation in the service of broader regional interests, SAARC could, in principle, be revived,” — Farwa Aamer, Director, South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute
In conclusion, while Pakistan's proposal for a new regional bloc reflects a strategic pivot towards enhanced cooperation with Bangladesh and China, its success will largely depend on the geopolitical dynamics within South Asia and the willingness of other nations to engage amidst existing tensions.
