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RBA Rate Hike Looms as Inflation Surges to 3.8%

12/7/2025

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Summary

Story summary

Markets price in a 100% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in 2026.
Inflation data show consumer price growth at 3.8%, exceeding the central bank's target.
This could affect 85,000 first-home buyers who benefited from three rate cuts in 2025.
Analysts expect national home values to rise 6% next year, down from 9%.
The RBA's 2025 rate decision is expected to keep the cash rate at 3.6%.

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Story summary

Markets price in a 100% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in 2026.
Inflation data show consumer price growth at 3.8%, exceeding the central bank's target.
This could affect 85,000 first-home buyers who benefited from three rate cuts in 2025.
Analysts expect national home values to rise 6% next year, down from 9%.
The RBA's 2025 rate decision is expected to keep the cash rate at 3.6%.