Rising Child Mortality: A Consequence of Global Aid Cuts

For the first time this century, child mortality rates are projected to rise, with an estimated 4.8 million children under five expected to die in 2025, an increase of 200,000 from 2024. This stark warning comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and is highlighted in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's annual Goalkeepers report. The decline in child deaths, which had seen a significant reduction from nearly 10 million annually in 2000 to under 5 million by 2020, is now reversing due to a sharp decline in international aid.

Global aid cuts trigger first rise in child mortality this centuryFor the first time this century, child deaths under age 5 will likely rise. Why?Vox

The primary driver of this increase is a historic drop in foreign aid for health, which fell from approximately $49 billion in 2024 to $36 billion in 2025—a reduction of over 26%. This decline is not limited to the United States; other high-income countries, including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, have also made significant cuts. The IHME's modeling indicates that countries most reliant on foreign aid for their health budgets, particularly low-income nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, will be disproportionately affected. Dr. Steve Lim, a researcher at IHME, notes that some countries may see health spending decrease by as much as 20% due to these cuts.

For the first time this century, child deaths under age 5 will likely rise. Why?

If these funding cuts persist, the IHME estimates that between 12 million and 16 million additional child deaths could occur by 2045. This projection is based on scenarios where global health funding remains 20% to 30% below 2024 levels. Bill Gates emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that the world could be on the brink of losing decades of progress in child health due to funding shortfalls.

Global aid cuts trigger first rise in child mortality this century

Critics argue that the cuts to foreign aid are not only detrimental to child health but also reflect a broader neglect of vulnerable populations. Ruth Gibson, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford, highlighted that the most vulnerable groups, particularly mothers and young children, will bear the brunt of these funding reductions. The situation is particularly dire in countries like Somalia, South Sudan, and Chad, where child mortality rates remain alarmingly high.

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In response to these alarming projections, Bill Gates called for a recommitment to global health funding, emphasizing the need for both innovative solutions and established interventions like vaccination programs. He warned that without adequate funding, lives that could be saved are now at risk, marking this as a critical moment for global child health.

Global aid cuts trigger first rise in child mortality this century

• “For decades, the world has made steady progress in saving children’s lives. But now, as challenges mount, that progress is reversing,” — Bill Gates, Chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global aid cuts trigger first rise in child mortality this century

• “Sometimes we talk about numbers. Oh, this is an increase in mortality, a percent increase. What is a percent? It's a human. It's a child,” — Brooke Nichols, Associate Professor of Global Health at Boston University

For the first time this century, child deaths under age 5 will likely rise. Why?

While the IHME's estimates are based on historical data and modeling, there is a lack of direct observational data on current child mortality rates. This gap in reliable data complicates the understanding of the full impact of aid cuts on child health outcomes. Further research and updated models will be necessary to accurately assess the situation as it evolves.

For the first time this century, child deaths under age 5 will likely rise. Why?