UAE-Backed Forces Seize Control in South Yemen, Raising Independence Prospects

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has recently seized control of all eight governorates that historically comprised South Yemen. This military maneuver, involving approximately 10,000 troops, has significant implications for the region, potentially paving the way for a declaration of independence from North Yemen for the first time since 1960. The STC's forces advanced into the oil-rich Hadramaut governorate and the less-populated Marah governorate, which had not been under their control previously.

The Guardian

The situation has led to a notable withdrawal of Saudi Arabian troops from key locations, including the presidential palace in Aden and the airport, indicating a significant shift in the power dynamics within Yemen. The STC's military successes have raised concerns about the future of Yemen's unity, as the STC may consider staging a referendum on independence, although such a move could be politically risky.

The Guardian

Since the Houthis, a northern-based group, captured the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, in 2015, the political landscape in Yemen has been characterized by an uneasy alliance between the Saudi-backed Islah party and the UAE-backed STC. This coalition has been fraught with tension, as the STC, led by President Aidarous al-Zubaidi, has maintained superior military capabilities. Yemen's President Rashad al-Alimi, who has relocated to Riyadh, has called for the STC to cease unilateral actions that could undermine the state's legal status.

The Guardian

The international community, particularly Western diplomats and the United Nations, has historically opposed the fragmentation of Yemen, advocating for a federal government that includes both the Houthis and southern forces. However, recent developments have prompted Western diplomats to engage with Zubaidi to assess his intentions and the potential ramifications for the ongoing conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthis.

The Guardian

Maysaa Shujaa al-Deen, a senior analyst at the Sana’a Centre for Strategic Studies, characterized the STC's actions as a significant turning point for Yemen, with the potential to disrupt existing regional alliances and possibly escalate tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The STC's newfound control may enable them to negotiate for greater autonomy or self-governance for the South.

The Guardian

Critics of the STC's actions warn that a unilateral declaration of independence could lead to further instability in Yemen. Alimi's call for the STC to return to barracks reflects concerns about the creation of a parallel governance structure that could exacerbate the ongoing civil conflict. Additionally, the implications for Saudi Arabia's border security are significant, given the history of Houthi attacks into Saudi territory.

The Guardian

• “Maysaa Shujaa al-Deen, a senior analyst at the Sana’a Centre for Strategic Studies, said: “This is probably the biggest turning point for Yemen since the fall of the capital, Sana’a, to the Houthis in 2015.” — Maysaa Shujaa al-Deen, Senior Analyst, Sana’a Centre for Strategic Studies

The Guardian

• “Alimi called on the STC to return to barracks, adding: “We reject any unilateral measures that undermine the legal status of the state and create a parallel reality.” — Rashad al-Alimi, President of Yemen

The Guardian

The unfolding situation in South Yemen remains fluid, with the STC's next moves likely to be influenced by both local dynamics and the strategic interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Guardian