Full Breakdown
One Nation's Surge Amidst Economic Concerns and Political Shifts
12/9/2025, 9:48:00 PM
Recent Polling Highlights Support for One Nation
One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has recorded a historic 17% primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential Poll, marking its highest level of support to date. This surge follows significant media attention surrounding Hanson's controversial burqa stunt and Barnaby Joyce's recent defection from the National Party to One Nation. In contrast, the Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, holds a primary vote of 34%, while the Coalition's support stands at 26%. The poll, which surveyed 978 voters, indicates a divided opinion on Joyce's impact, with 31% believing his leadership would enhance One Nation's appeal, while 42% felt it would detract from it.
Economic Concerns Drive Voter Sentiment
The poll results reflect a broader sentiment of pessimism among Australian voters regarding the cost of living. Approximately 60% of respondents expressed concerns about the government's ability to manage rising expenses, with nearly three-quarters anticipating increases in grocery (74%), energy (73%), and housing prices (73%) in 2026. This economic anxiety appears to be influencing voter preferences, as 42% of those surveyed indicated they would be less likely to support One Nation due to Hanson's burqa stunt, while 35% said they would be more likely to do so.
Coalition's Declining Support
The Coalition's support has also diminished, as evidenced by a Resolve Strategic poll conducted from December 2 to 7, which revealed a 26% primary vote for the Coalition, down from 29%. This decline coincides with Labor's commanding 55-45 two-party preferred lead over the Coalition. The poll highlights that 42% of voters prioritize cost of living issues, further complicating the Coalition's position.
Immigration Concerns and Public Sentiment
Amidst economic worries, immigration remains a contentious topic. The Resolve Strategic poll found that 53% of respondents believe the current net migration intake of 316,000 per year is too high, an increase from 49% in September. Many voters attribute rising housing costs and pressures on public services to high immigration levels. A significant 64% of respondents support pausing immigration until housing issues are addressed, while 61% favor restricting permanent migration to skilled individuals.
Official Statements & Responses
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, noted that Barnaby Joyce's polarizing presence has influenced One Nation's recent polling surge. He remarked, "Whether correlation or causation, there’s been a bump in the One Nation vote around the chatter of Barnaby coming on board." Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank's decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% signals ongoing economic challenges, with potential interest rate increases anticipated in 2026.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Whether correlation or causation, there’s been a bump in the One Nation vote around the chatter of Barnaby coming on board.” — Peter Lewis, Executive Director of Essential Media
- “the world is becoming more divided” — Respondent sentiment from the Guardian Essential Poll
Conclusion
As One Nation capitalizes on economic discontent and political shifts, the implications for Australia's political landscape remain significant. With rising concerns over living costs and immigration, the dynamics of voter support are evolving, potentially reshaping the future of Australian politics.
