Trump's Affinity for Middle Eastern Authoritarians: A Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy

Former President Donald Trump's foreign policy approach has shown a marked preference for authoritarian leaders in the Middle East, diverging significantly from traditional U.S. diplomatic norms. This shift is characterized by his admiration for leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which reflects a broader transformation in U.S. relations with the region.

Historically, U.S. administrations have conditioned military aid and diplomatic relations on human rights considerations. However, Trump's administration has altered this paradigm. The 2022 update of the U.S. National Security Strategy, prepared under President Joe Biden, emphasized accountability for human rights violations. In contrast, Trump's December 2020 update notably omitted human rights discussions, focusing instead on fostering partnerships with Middle Eastern nations without demanding adherence to democratic principles.

Trump's relationships with Middle Eastern leaders are notable for their transactional nature. He has praised Mohammed bin Salman as "fantastic" and "brilliant," despite Saudi Arabia's record of human rights abuses, including over 240 executions in 2021. Erdogan's increasingly autocratic governance has also garnered Trump's admiration, with the U.S. ambassador to Turkey describing their relationship as a "bromance." Additionally, Trump has expressed support for Syria's interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, highlighting a preference for leaders he perceives as "tough."

Scholars have identified Trump's affinity for these leaders as part of a broader trend termed "neo-royalism," which describes an international system dominated by elite figures who leverage economic and military interdependencies for personal gain. This perspective suggests that Trump's foreign policy is guided by a vision of absolute sovereignty, prioritizing relationships with leaders who embody monarchical authority. The implications of this shift extend beyond the Middle East, as it reflects a global trend where countries like Turkey, India, and Russia also gravitate towards elite-dominated governance.

Critics argue that Trump's approach undermines the liberal international order and legitimizes authoritarianism. The "No Kings" marches in 2025, which saw millions of Americans protesting against Trump's perceived royalist tendencies, exemplify the domestic backlash against this shift. Detractors contend that fostering relationships with authoritarian leaders normalizes oppressive governance and erodes democratic values.

Experts suggest that Trump's preference for Middle Eastern autocrats stems from a shared policymaking style and a lack of political constraints that characterize their regimes. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, notes that Trump's decision-making aligns more closely with authoritarian leaders than with traditional democratic counterparts.

“Trump's affinity for leaders in the Middle East, and especially in the Gulf, may be rooted in an appreciation of certain similarities in their policymaking style as well as the transactional basis of the relationships they build,” — Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Middle East Fellow, Rice University

“What's important if you're going to promote this [neo-royal] alternative, you have to normalize the behavior, legitimatize it," Newman says.” — Abraham Newman, Georgetown University

While many analysts agree on the shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump, there is ongoing debate about the long-term implications of this neo-royalist approach. Some argue it may lead to increased instability in international relations, while others suggest it could foster new forms of cooperation among authoritarian regimes. The full impact of these changes remains to be seen as global dynamics continue to evolve.