Decline in Homicides Under President Claudia Sheinbaum's Security Strategy

Since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in September 2024, Mexico has witnessed a significant decline in intentional homicides. According to government data, the average number of daily homicides fell from approximately 86.9 in September 2024 to 54.7 in November 2025, marking a 37% reduction. This decline is reported to be the lowest monthly figure since November 2015, with a total of 21,743 homicides recorded in the first eleven months of 2025.

Lowest since 2015: Intentional homicides around Mexico decrease 37 percentHomicides continue to drop across much of Mexico: Tuesday’s mañanera recappedThe Guardian

Sheinbaum attributes this decrease to her administration's National Security Strategy, which emphasizes strengthening the national guard, enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities, and improving coordination among government agencies. Marcela Figueroa Franco, head of the National Public Security System, noted that the homicide rate has decreased by 35% compared to 2018, suggesting a broader trend of declining violence.

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Despite the overall decline, the distribution of homicides remains uneven, with seven states accounting for over half of all murders. Guanajuato leads with 2,388 homicides, followed by Chihuahua (1,661), Baja California (1,586), and Sinaloa (1,541). Notably, while homicides decreased in 26 of Mexico's 32 states, some areas, including Sinaloa, experienced increases in violent crime.

Homicides continue to drop across much of Mexico: Tuesday’s mañanera recappedLowest since 2015: Intentional homicides around Mexico decrease 37 percentThe Guardian

In addition to the decline in homicides, the government reported nearly 39,000 arrests for high-impact crimes since Sheinbaum's administration began. This includes the seizure of over 20,000 firearms and 311 tons of drugs, including significant quantities of fentanyl. Security Minister Omar García Harfuch highlighted that dismantling clandestine drug laboratories has had a substantial economic impact on organized crime.

Homicides continue to drop across much of Mexico: Tuesday’s mañanera recapped

While the government celebrates these statistics, security analysts express caution regarding the interpretation of homicide data. Experts like Armando Vargas from Mexico Evalúa argue that the focus on homicide rates may obscure other forms of violence, such as forced disappearances, which have reportedly increased by 15% in some regions. Vargas emphasized that the methodology of averaging daily killings can mask spikes in violence on specific days, complicating the assessment of public safety.

The Guardian

President Sheinbaum has publicly stated, “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy... The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it every day.” However, critics argue that the government’s presentation of data constructs a narrative of security that may not reflect the lived realities of many citizens facing ongoing violence and corruption.

The Guardian

The decline in homicides during Claudia Sheinbaum's presidency reflects a complex interplay of government strategy and persistent challenges in public safety. While the statistics indicate progress, the rise in other violent crimes and ongoing cartel activity highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of Mexico's security landscape.

The Guardian