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John Swinney Faces Growing Opposition on Immigration and Independence

12/12/2025, 12:16:04 AM

Shift in Public Sentiment on Immigration

Recent polling indicates a significant shift in public opinion regarding immigration in Scotland, presenting a challenge to First Minister John Swinney and the Scottish National Party (SNP). A YouGov survey revealed that 53% of Scots believe immigration levels over the past decade have been too high, while only 12% consider Scottish independence a pressing issue. This sentiment contrasts sharply with Swinney's pro-migration stance, where he argues that increasing immigration is essential to address Scotland's declining working-age population and economic needs.

Swinney's Pro-Migration Stance

Swinney has been vocal about the necessity of migration, stating, "It’s important that very clear and emphatic political leadership is given that Scotland will not follow that hostile approach to migration." He emphasizes that a welcoming economy is crucial for generating wealth and enhancing diversity in Scotland. Despite rising anti-immigration sentiments and protests against asylum seeker accommodations, Swinney maintains that these views represent a minority perspective. He asserts that Scotland's approach to immigration differs from that of the rest of the UK, claiming that "very different attitudes prevailed in Scotland."

Rising Support for Reform UK

The political landscape is shifting, with support for Reform UK, a right-wing party advocating for reduced immigration, surging to 18% in recent polls. This increase comes as immigration has become a top concern for 30% of Scots, marking a notable rise from previous months. Swinney's assertion that he speaks for the majority of Scots is increasingly questioned, as many voters express dissatisfaction with the SNP's handling of immigration and other pressing issues, such as healthcare and the economy.

Criticism of Swinney's Leadership

Critics, including Scottish Conservative MSP Craig Hoy and Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie, have condemned Swinney's focus on independence and immigration while public services struggle. They argue that his continued emphasis on independence distracts from urgent issues facing Scotland, such as the NHS crisis and economic challenges. Hoy described Swinney's approach as a "broken record," while Baillie urged him to prioritize fixing public services over independence rhetoric.

Official Statements & Responses

In response to the growing concerns about immigration, Swinney has called for better engagement from the UK Home Office, particularly regarding the refugee housing crisis in Glasgow. He stated, "This is a Home Office issue," emphasizing the need for collaboration to address the challenges faced by local councils. Despite the mounting pressure, he remains steadfast in his belief that Scotland needs more migrants to bolster its economy.

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

While Swinney claims to represent the majority view in Scotland, polling data suggests a growing discontent with immigration levels and a rising preference for parties like Reform UK. This discrepancy highlights a potential gap between the SNP's messaging and the sentiments of a significant portion of the electorate.

What's Next

As Scotland approaches the next Holyrood election, immigration is set to be a central issue in campaign discussions. With public sentiment shifting and support for Reform UK increasing, the SNP will need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain its electoral support.