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IEA Ups Oil Demand Forecast Amid Supply Challenges

12/12/2025

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Summary

IEA Boosts Oil Demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 830,000 bpd and for 2026 to 860,000 bpd, citing improved economic conditions and U.S. trade agreements.
Sanctions on Russia and Venezuela dampen supply growth.
Russian export revenues fell to their lowest level since the Ukraine invasion.
Refinery margins are tightening due to divergent crude and product markets.

Summary

OPEC Forecasts Oil Demand

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on December 11, 2025, that global oil demand will rise about 1.4 million bpd in 2026.
It reported November production at 43.06 million bpd.
It projected OPEC+ crude demand at about 43 million bpd for 2025.
OPEC expects a balanced market next year as non-OPEC+ supply rises about 600,000 bpd.
U.S. shale growth could slow if WTI falls below $60 per barrel.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 OPEC Oil Crisis began when OAPEC imposed an oil embargo against nations supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War, leading to a 400% increase in oil prices from $3 to nearly $12 per barrel. This crisis reshaped global energy policies, prompting the establishment of the International Energy Agency and long-term shifts toward alternative energy sources, highlighting the volatility of oil markets.

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IEA Boosts Oil Demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 830,000 bpd and for 2026 to 860,000 bpd, citing improved economic conditions and U.S. trade agreements.
Sanctions on Russia and Venezuela dampen supply growth.
Russian export revenues fell to their lowest level since the Ukraine invasion.
Refinery margins are tightening due to divergent crude and product markets.

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