Full Breakdown
Shifting Power Dynamics in Southern Yemen: The Southern Transitional Council's Ascendancy
12/14/2025, 4:38:12 AM
Recent Territorial Gains by the Southern Transitional Council
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) has recently expanded its territorial control in southern Yemen, now governing nearly all of the southern and eastern regions, including the governorates of Hadramout and Mahra, as well as the city of Aden, which is the seat of the internationally recognized government. Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the STC leader, has articulated ambitions to advance towards Sanaa, either peacefully or through military means, to restore what he describes as justice for the Yemeni people. The STC claims its military actions are essential for stability and combating the Houthi rebels, terrorist groups, and drug trafficking.
Background of the Conflict
The ongoing conflict in Yemen began in 2014 when the Iran-backed Houthis ousted the internationally recognized government from Sanaa, leading to a protracted civil war. The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), supported by Saudi Arabia, has struggled to unify the south and reclaim control over the entire country. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has shown increasing willingness to accept the Houthis as legitimate rulers to mitigate border conflicts. The United Arab Emirates, which backs the STC, has expressed support for the idea of re-establishing South Yemen as an independent state, reminiscent of its status from 1967 to 1990.
Implications of a Potential Split
Experts warn that a formal declaration of independence by the STC could inadvertently legitimize Houthi control in the north, leading to a fragmented political landscape. Marieke Brandt, a senior researcher at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, noted that such a split would not resolve the underlying issues in Yemen but rather create two rival, unrecognized entities that could perpetuate conflict. Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the Houthis would likely emerge as the primary beneficiaries of a weakened PLC.
Humanitarian Concerns Amidst Political Turmoil
The recent power shifts in southern Yemen have raised alarms about a potential resurgence of violence after a period of relative calm following a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022. Reports indicate that STC forces have forcibly displaced individuals from the north, raising concerns about human rights violations. Niku Jafarnia from Human Rights Watch highlighted the chaotic situation in the region, predicting an increase in human rights abuses as the STC consolidates its control. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen remains dire, with the UN estimating that around 60% of the approximately 377,000 deaths from 2015 to early 2022 were due to indirect causes such as food insecurity and inadequate health services.
Criticism of the Current Situation
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a Yemeni conflict analyst, emphasized that the calls for southern secession are unlikely to dissipate, although he does not foresee full independence as a feasible outcome. He noted that the fragmentation of Yemen could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, which is already considered one of the worst globally, with millions at risk of famine.
Verbatim Quotes
- “next goal must be Sanaa, peacefully or through war, until justice returns to its people and aggression is defeated.” — Aidarous al-Zubaidi, Leader of the STC
- “A formal declaration of independence in southern Yemen would implicitly legitimize the rule of the Houthis in Yemen's north and center,” — Marieke Brandt, Senior Researcher, Austrian Academy of Sciences
- “Honestly, the situation has been chaotic in the past few days in southern Yemen but we've heard specifically that people from the north have been kicked out of their homes by STC forces and their affiliated groups,” — Niku Jafarnia, Yemen Researcher, Human Rights Watch
The evolving dynamics in southern Yemen underscore the complexities of the ongoing conflict, with significant implications for both governance and humanitarian conditions in the region.
