Public Sentiment on Peace and Elections in Ukraine Amid Ongoing Conflict

Recent polling conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) reveals significant resistance among Ukrainians to peace plans that require territorial concessions to Russia. The survey, conducted between November 26 and December 13, 2025, indicates that 75% of respondents find proposals involving the ceding of territory or limitations on Ukraine's military capabilities unacceptable. This sentiment persists despite increasing pressure from the United States, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has advocated for a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict.

The KIIS survey also highlights a strong preference for postponing elections until after a peace agreement is reached. Only 9% of respondents support holding elections before a ceasefire, a decrease from 11% in September. A majority, 57%, believe elections should occur only after the war concludes. This reflects a broader understanding that conducting elections under current conditions—marked by ongoing hostilities and martial law—would be impractical and unsafe.

In response to Trump's calls for elections, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated a willingness to consider holding elections or a referendum on territorial concessions, contingent upon security guarantees from Western allies. Zelenskyy emphasized that any decision regarding territorial changes would ultimately require public input, stating, "The people of Ukraine will answer this question. Whether through elections or a referendum, there must be a position from the people of Ukraine."

Despite the tumultuous political landscape and a recent corruption scandal that affected his administration, Zelenskyy's approval ratings have shown resilience. Trust in the president rose from 49% in late November to 63% in December, suggesting that public confidence remains relatively stable. This trust is crucial as Zelenskyy navigates the complex dynamics of peace negotiations and domestic expectations.

Critics, including some Ukrainian officials, argue that U.S.-backed proposals may be overly favorable to Russia and could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty. A senior Ukrainian official described a potential peace plan that would require troop withdrawals from the Donbas region as tantamount to capitulation. This perspective underscores the delicate balance Ukraine must maintain in its negotiations with both the U.S. and Russia.

Public sentiment regarding the war's duration reflects growing pessimism. While 14% of respondents believe hostilities may cease in the first half of 2026, 32% expect the conflict to extend into 2027 or beyond. This uncertainty about the timeline for peace adds to the urgency for a resolution that aligns with the will of the Ukrainian people.

As Ukraine continues to grapple with the realities of war, the public's strong opposition to territorial concessions and the preference for post-war elections highlight the complexities of achieving a lasting peace. Zelenskyy's administration faces the dual challenge of addressing external pressures while ensuring that any agreements reflect the desires of the Ukrainian populace. The coming months will be critical in determining both the political landscape and the prospects for peace in Ukraine.