November Jobs Report: A Unique Snapshot Amidst Government Shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the November jobs report on December 16, 2025, a delay caused by a 43-day government shutdown that impacted data collection. This report will include the establishment survey data for October, while the household survey data for that month, which includes the unemployment rate, will not be published due to disruptions during the shutdown. Economists anticipate that the November report will show a modest addition of approximately 40,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.

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The government shutdown, which lasted from October 1 to November 12, resulted in the furlough of over 700,000 federal workers and halted the collection and processing of crucial economic data. Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, noted the uncertainty surrounding the report due to the unusual circumstances. The BLS extended the data collection period for November, which may yield a more comprehensive view of the labor market despite the challenges faced.

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Economists have mixed expectations for the November jobs report. Shruti Mishra from Bank of America indicated that while the shutdown's impact on payrolls was minimal in previous instances, the October report could reflect a net loss of around 65,000 jobs, primarily due to federal employment declines. In contrast, projections for November suggest a slight increase in nonfarm payrolls, with estimates ranging from 40,000 to 60,000 jobs added.

Time and a Half: US employment report preview

Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics, expressed skepticism about significant job growth, suggesting that the recent high-water mark for job creation may have occurred in September. He emphasized that the labor market remains stagnant, with insufficient job creation to lower the unemployment rate.

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The report is expected to reveal varied job growth across sectors. Economists predict that goods-related sectors may experience declines, while healthcare and restaurant industries could continue to see job gains. Wage growth is anticipated to slow, potentially affecting consumer spending in the future. Cory Stahle from the Indeed Hiring Lab highlighted the importance of labor force participation rates and employment-to-population ratios as indicators of the overall job market experience.

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There are discrepancies in the projections for October's job performance. While some estimates suggest a decline of 60,000 jobs, others indicate a more nuanced picture, with a potential net loss of 125,000 jobs in federal employment due to the deferred resignation program. The lack of household survey data for October further complicates the understanding of the unemployment rate during this period.

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• “These government shutdowns don’t come around very often, and so there’s always a little bit of uncertainty when you have an operation as large as what the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] does for the jobs report,” — Daniel Zhao, Chief Economist at Glassdoor

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• “I think there’s a placid pace of jobs growth that seems most likely for the report,” — Daniel Zhao, Chief Economist at Glassdoor

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• “At the end of the day, if you’re making 100,000 jobs a month but … the unemployment rate is going up or people are saying, ‘I just can’t find anything; I’m not going to participate and look for a job anymore,’” — Cory Stahle, Economist at Indeed Hiring Lab

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The upcoming jobs report will provide critical insights into the state of the U.S. labor market, reflecting the complexities introduced by the recent government shutdown and ongoing economic challenges.

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