Urban Planning Insights: A Cautionary Tale from California to New Zealand

M. Nolan Gray, a visiting urban planner from California, has issued a stark warning to New Zealand regarding its housing policies. Drawing from his experiences in California, where cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco face severe housing crises, Gray emphasizes the importance of increasing housing supply in urban areas. He argues that the pain of significant housing production is preferable to the long-term consequences of inaction, which include skyrocketing home prices and declining community vitality.

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Gray's observations are particularly relevant as he visits Auckland, where the 2016 Unitary Plan has led to a notable increase in townhouse construction. This plan has reportedly lowered rents and reduced house prices, contrasting sharply with California's decades-long struggle with housing shortages. Gray notes that while Auckland has made strides in addressing housing supply, similar challenges persist in its inner suburbs, where development remains restricted.

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The chronic undersupply of housing in cities like Los Angeles has been exacerbated by restrictive zoning laws, which have often favored established, affluent residents over the needs of a growing population. Gray highlights that this pattern is not unique to California; it is echoed in New Zealand, where local councils have historically imposed development bans in desirable areas. However, he commends New Zealand for its proactive measures, including the Unitary Plan and the forthcoming Plan Change 120, which aims to facilitate apartment construction near transit hubs.

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Gray warns that failure to adapt to changing housing needs can lead to demographic decline, as seen in many Californian suburbs where aging homeowners resist change. He points out that these communities are losing younger residents, who are forced to relocate for affordable housing, resulting in a cycle of decline that affects local economies and social structures.

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Despite the progress made, Gray notes that the current discourse surrounding Plan Change 120 is often dominated by fears of negative impacts from new housing developments. Critics, including some local councillors, express concerns that cities like Christchurch may not face the same pressures for future construction as Auckland. Gray argues that this focus on potential downsides distracts from the more significant risks associated with maintaining the status quo, including rising rents and diminished opportunities for homeownership.

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Gray's advocacy for increased housing supply is underscored by his role at California YIMBY, where he connects urban planning policies to broader societal issues. He asserts that the consequences of inaction are dire: “You don’t want to live in an Auckland where every renter is spending half of their income on rent... the alternative is to not have anything built near you, but have your community nonetheless dramatically change in every meaningful sense.”

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• “As painful as significant housing production can be, and as painful as it is to have a lot of change, the alternative is just so much worse,” — M. Nolan Gray, Urban Planner

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• “I think there are real serious conversations happening around this issue here, in a way that’s not always true in places that have a housing crisis,” — M. Nolan Gray, Urban Planner

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• “You don’t want to live in an Auckland where your kids are having to move away because they can’t afford to stay nearby,” he says.” — M. Nolan Gray, Urban Planner

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As New Zealand navigates its housing challenges, the lessons from California serve as a cautionary tale. The ongoing reforms, including the replacement of the Resource Management Act, aim to dismantle barriers to dense housing development. Gray's insights underscore the urgency of these changes to ensure that future generations can afford to live in vibrant, thriving communities.

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