Full Breakdown
Nigeria's Inflation Rate Declines to 14.45% in November 2025
12/16/2025, 11:30:14 AM
Overview of Inflation Trends
Nigeria's headline inflation rate decreased to 14.45% in November 2025, down from 16.05% in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of declining inflation. This reduction is the lowest level recorded since October 2020 and reflects a significant turnaround from the peak of nearly 35% in December 2024. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this decline to various factors, including improved foreign exchange conditions, tighter monetary policy, and easing supply-side constraints.
Key Contributors to Inflation
Food inflation, which is a major component of the consumer price index, fell to 11.08% year-on-year in November, down from 39.93% in the same month last year. This substantial decline is partially due to a change in the base year for inflation calculations, which was revised from 2009 to 2024. Despite the annual decrease, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13%, indicating that prices for staple items such as tomatoes, cassava, eggs, and onions have increased recently.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also showed a downward trend, standing at 18.04% year-on-year in November, down from 28.75% in November 2024. However, on a monthly basis, core inflation increased to 1.28%, reflecting ongoing price pressures in other sectors.
Urban vs. Rural Inflation
The NBS reported that urban inflation decreased to 13.61% year-on-year in November, a significant drop from 37.10% in November 2024. In contrast, rural inflation remained higher at 15.15%, although it also fell from 32.27% a year earlier. Month-on-month rural inflation rose sharply to 1.88%, compared to 0.45% in October, indicating stronger price increases in rural areas.
Official Statements & Responses
The NBS noted, “The November 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.6% compared to the October 2025 headline inflation rate.” Analysts have expressed cautious optimism regarding the inflation data. Johnson Chukwu, CEO of Cowry Asset Management, stated that the trend reflects tight monetary policy and improved macroeconomic stability. However, Bismarck Rewane of Financial Derivatives Company cautioned that food prices remain vulnerable to supply shocks.
Criticism & Opposition
Despite the positive trends in inflation rates, some analysts warn that the increase in month-on-month inflation, particularly in food prices, suggests that underlying price pressures have not fully dissipated. The NBS highlighted that the rise in monthly inflation indicates ongoing challenges for households, particularly in rural areas where food prices are more susceptible to fluctuations.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the overall inflation figures indicate a decline, the NBS cautioned that the sharp annual drop in food inflation is partly due to statistical base effects from the recent rebasing of the consumer price index. This adjustment complicates year-on-year comparisons and may mask ongoing price pressures that consumers face.
Conclusion
The decline in Nigeria's inflation rate to 14.45% in November 2025 signals a positive shift in the economic landscape, providing policymakers with greater flexibility in monetary policy. However, the rise in month-on-month inflation, especially in food prices, underscores the need for continued vigilance as the country navigates its economic recovery. The trajectory of inflation will depend on various factors, including exchange rate stability and food supply conditions, as Nigeria aims to sustain this disinflation trend moving forward.
