Full Breakdown
Port of Los Angeles Navigates Trade Uncertainty Amid Record Cargo Volumes
12/18/2025, 11:42:50 AM
Cargo Performance Amid Tariff Challenges
The Port of Los Angeles is projected to achieve its third-busiest cargo year on record, despite experiencing a significant decline in November volumes due to tariff-related uncertainties affecting U.S. trade. In November, the port processed 782,249 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), marking a 12% decrease from the previous year. However, year-to-date volumes reached 9.45 million TEUs, with expectations to surpass 10 million TEUs by the end of 2025, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka. He emphasized that the port's efficiency, stemming from effective coordination among supply chain stakeholders, has allowed it to maintain strong performance despite the downturn.
Factors Contributing to Volume Declines
The decline in November's cargo volumes reflects broader trends across U.S. container ports, as the impact of tariff volatility continues to ripple through supply chains. Loaded imports fell by 11% year-over-year to 406,421 TEUs, while loaded exports decreased by 8% to 113,706 TEUs. Notably, imports from China, which constitute about 40% of the port's total, declined by 28.7% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of downturn. Analysts from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates predict that these import declines will persist into 2026, driven by shifting trade policies and reduced demand.
Economic Outlook and Consumer Behavior
Despite the challenges, the NRF forecasts record U.S. holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion this year, indicating a disconnect between consumer demand and import volumes. Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, noted that while stores are well-stocked for the holiday season, uncertainty regarding future trade policies remains significant. Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, anticipates economic growth in early 2026, influenced by tax refunds from the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but slower growth later in the year due to tariff impacts.
Criticism and Concerns
Critics have raised concerns about the long-term effects of tariffs on U.S. exporters, particularly American farmers who have suffered from China's boycott of U.S. soybeans. Gene Seroka acknowledged that exporters are facing challenges, stating, “If exports can edge up, that’s a positive impact to GDP. We’re just not seeing that yet.” Additionally, the port's performance may be hampered by high inventory levels, prompting importers to pace their orders more cautiously to avoid deep discounts post-holiday season.
Official Statements and Future Projections
Looking ahead, Seroka predicts single-digit declines in import volumes for 2026, contrasting with the NRF's Global Port Tracker, which anticipates double-digit drops in inbound cargo for major U.S. ports in the early months of the year. He expressed confidence that the port would not experience drastic declines, attributing potential downturns to elevated inventory levels across the country.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Even with all the trade uncertainty, we’ll finish 2025 north of 10 million TEUs,” — Gene Seroka, Executive Director, Port of Los Angeles
- “Stores are stocked and ready for a strong holiday season,” — Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy
- “If exports can edge up, that’s a positive impact to GDP,” — Gene Seroka, Executive Director, Port of Los Angeles
- “We don’t expect that to continue in 2026. We expect firms to try to pass on as much as they can.” — Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit
The Port of Los Angeles continues to navigate a complex landscape shaped by tariffs and trade policies, balancing record cargo volumes with the challenges posed by shifting economic conditions.
