Impacts of Climate Change on the UK and Global Food Security

Recent research has outlined severe potential impacts of climate change on the UK, highlighting scenarios that could lead to a 4°C rise in temperatures and a 2-meter rise in sea levels by 2100. These projections, developed by scientists at the University of Reading and published in the journal *Earth’s Future*, indicate that extreme weather could disrupt agriculture and energy systems significantly. A notable concern is the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which could lead to a drastic 6°C cooling in the UK if it collapses by 2030. This scenario could severely affect agricultural productivity and water resources, as noted by lead researcher Nigel Arnell.

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The global food supply is increasingly threatened by climate change, with projections indicating that key crop yields could decline significantly. Under high-emission scenarios, maize yields could drop by as much as 24% by the century's end, exacerbating food insecurity for over 600 million people worldwide by 2030. The impacts of extreme weather, such as droughts and floods, have already been observed, with recent events in China, the US, and southern Africa leading to substantial crop losses. For instance, record rainfall in eastern China in 2023 damaged approximately 5 million metric tonnes of corn, while the US experienced its driest autumn on record in 2024, resulting in over $20 billion in crop losses.

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The UK government has acknowledged the need for climate resilience, committing to building new infrastructure and flood defenses. A spokesperson emphasized that climate change is central to their agenda, with plans to invest £10.5 billion in flood defenses by 2036. However, critics argue that adaptation plans remain inadequate. A 2021 House of Lords report highlighted a lack of attention to low-probability but high-impact climate risks, and the Climate Change Committee has called for more robust adaptation strategies.

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While the research presents dire scenarios, the probability of these extreme outcomes remains uncertain, as it depends on future climate action and systemic responses. The government has requested further evidence reviews from the Climate Change Committee to better understand these risks, with findings expected in spring 2026.

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• “The climate extremes we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are plausible,” — Nigel Arnell, Professor, University of Reading

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• “Agriculture would struggle enormously and water resources would be completely altered,” — Nigel Arnell, Professor, University of Reading

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• “One of the best things we can do is cut emissions. Going from high warming to more moderate warming cuts global caloric yield losses by half. That helps everyone – from breadbasket farmers to developed-world consumers to the global poor.” — Andrew Hultgren, Assistant Professor, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

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The interplay between climate change and food security presents a complex challenge that requires immediate and sustained action to mitigate risks and prepare for potential disruptions.

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