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Tokyo Earthquake Risks: 18,000 Lives, $82.6 Trillion Losses

12/19/2025

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Summary

Story summary

On December 19, 2025, a government panel said a magnitude 7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo could kill up to 18,000, mainly from fires.
The estimate is 5,000 lower than a 2013 projection due to improved building safety.
Economic losses could reach 82.6 trillion yen, with a 70 percent chance within 30 years.
A separate estimate for a magnitude 8 quake along the Sagami Trough projects 23,000 deaths, down from 70,000.

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Story summary

On December 19, 2025, a government panel said a magnitude 7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo could kill up to 18,000, mainly from fires.
The estimate is 5,000 lower than a 2013 projection due to improved building safety.
Economic losses could reach 82.6 trillion yen, with a 70 percent chance within 30 years.
A separate estimate for a magnitude 8 quake along the Sagami Trough projects 23,000 deaths, down from 70,000.