1 of 1
Story summary
- The consensus outlook for 2026 projects U.S. real GDP growth at 1.9%.
- The top 10 forecasts average 2.5% while the bottom 10 average 1.2%, showing wide divergence.
- Uncertainty arises from a lack of recent government data.
- Forecasters remain divided on AI's effect on productivity.
- Historically, actual GDP growth typically lies within about 1 percentage point of the consensus for 2026.
