Surge in Russian LNG Exports to China: A New Energy Dynamic

In November 2025, Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to China reached a record high, with shipments more than doubling year-on-year to 1.6 million metric tons. This surge allowed Russia to overtake Australia, becoming China's second-largest LNG supplier after Qatar, according to customs data reported by Bloomberg. The increase in exports is attributed to significant price reductions by Russian suppliers, particularly Novatek, which cut prices by 30-40% to attract Chinese buyers amid ongoing Western sanctions.

CityLabUnited24 MediaRussian LNG exports to China hit record levels - BloombergKyiv Independent

The rise in Russian LNG exports reflects a strategic pivot towards Asian markets, particularly China, as Moscow seeks to compensate for declining sales to Europe. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, European countries were Russia's largest gas customers. However, as these nations have moved to reduce their dependence on Russian energy, China has emerged as a key buyer, capitalizing on discounted prices. In November, Russian LNG was priced about 10% below the average market rate, making it the cheapest option among China's 12 LNG suppliers.

Kyiv IndependentUnited24 MediaEuromaiden PressCityLab

Despite the record export figures, Russia faces logistical challenges in delivering LNG. The Arctic LNG 2 facility, which began production in December 2023, has struggled with output due to winter conditions and the need for ice-class tankers. The facility has had to cut production significantly, and the only ice-class tanker capable of navigating Arctic waters, the Christophe de Margerie, is limited in availability. Additionally, the sanctioned LNG carrier Buran has faced difficulties reaching the facility due to ice.

Moscow TimesOil PriceOil PriceUnited24 Media

Officials have noted that the relationship between Russia and China in the energy sector is characterized more by exploitation than alliance. A source close to the Russian government remarked, “China does not behave like an ally. Sometimes it lets us down and stops payments, sometimes it takes advantage, sometimes it is outright robbery.” This sentiment underscores the complexities of the partnership, where Russia's desperation for buyers leads to unfavorable terms.

Euromaiden Press

Critics argue that the reliance on discounted Russian LNG poses risks for China, particularly in light of potential repercussions from Western sanctions. The arrangement has been described as one where Russia sells at steep discounts due to a lack of alternatives, while China benefits from lower prices, raising concerns about the long-term implications of such a dependency.

United24 Media

Looking ahead, Russian LNG exports to China may face significant declines as winter ice conditions complicate shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 project. The future of this energy dynamic will depend on both geopolitical developments and the ability of Russia to navigate logistical challenges in its LNG supply chain.

Moscow TimesOil PriceUnited24 MediaOil Price

• “China does not behave like an ally. Sometimes it lets us down and stops payments, sometimes it takes advantage, sometimes it is outright robbery.” — Source close to the Russian government.

Euromaiden Press