The Shift in U.S. Influence in Latin America Under Donald Trump

In 2025, during the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, the United States has seen a significant shift in its approach to Latin America, characterized by a resurgence of imperialistic policies. Analysts have raised concerns about potential military incursions into Venezuela, particularly regarding the U.S. pressure on Nicolás Maduro. However, the more pressing issue is the ongoing direct intervention that has already resulted in over 100 fatalities from U.S. maritime strikes, which some experts describe as extrajudicial executions. This shift has faced minimal resistance, primarily from the U.S. Congress rather than Latin American leaders or organizations.

The Guardian

Under Trump, Latin America has become polarized into obedient allies and ideological adversaries. Leaders such as Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, Javier Milei of Argentina, and Daniel Noboa of Ecuador have aligned closely with Washington, receiving financial and diplomatic rewards. In contrast, Brazil and Mexico, under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Claudia Sheinbaum, have adopted a pragmatic resistance strategy, balancing cooperation with a rejection of U.S. interference. This approach has allowed them to negotiate with Trump while maintaining their sovereignty, unlike Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, whose confrontational stance has led to punitive measures without altering U.S. behavior.

The Guardian

The institutions that once facilitated regional diplomacy have weakened significantly. Efforts to negotiate a transition in Venezuela have repeatedly failed, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) summit with the EU did not condemn U.S. military actions. Furthermore, the Summit of the Americas was canceled, highlighting the diminishing effectiveness of multilateral bodies in addressing U.S. interventions.

The Guardian

Critics argue that Trump’s foreign policy has exploited the left's ideological exhaustion in Latin America. The once-cohesive anti-imperialist sentiment has fragmented, with many in the region now supporting U.S. military intervention to remove Maduro. A recent poll indicated that 53% of Latin American respondents would back such an intervention, reflecting a broader disillusionment with the left's ability to present a compelling alternative to Trump's assertive policies.

The Guardian

Claudia Sheinbaum's recent appeal for United Nations action against U.S. strikes was seen as largely symbolic, underscoring the ineffectiveness of multilateral responses in the current diplomatic landscape. The lack of unified regional opposition to U.S. actions has allowed Trump to consolidate his influence in the region.

The Guardian

• “Washington doesn’t need an invasion to upend the hemispheric order; Trump is already its new centre of gravity.” — The Guardian

The Guardian

• “By confronting Trump head on, he exposed his government to punitive measures without altering Washington’s behaviour – a risky gambit aimed at shoring up domestic support but one that underscores a new regional axiom: loud resistance without collective backing is now a losing strategy.” — The Guardian

The Guardian

• “Today that vocabulary is fractured; the political energy that sustained it has evaporated at both national and regional levels.” — The Guardian

The Guardian

• “It is only one data point, but it captures a broader transformation: the region no longer believes in the collective narrative that once constrained Washington.” — The Guardian

The Guardian

As Trump continues to exert influence over Latin America, the region's political landscape may further shift, potentially leading to increased U.S. military actions under the guise of combating “narcoterrorism.” The effectiveness of regional leaders in navigating this new reality will be crucial in determining the future of U.S.-Latin America relations.

The Guardian