Vietnam's Leadership Transition Ahead of January Congress

On December 23, 2025, senior officials of Vietnam's ruling Communist Party concluded a two-day plenum in Hanoi, finalizing candidates for the country's top leadership positions ahead of the five-yearly congress scheduled for January 19-25, 2026. General Secretary To Lam, who succeeded the late Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024, is viewed as the leading contender to retain his position. In his closing remarks, Lam noted that delegates "voted with a high level of support" for nominees to key roles, emphasizing ongoing public administration reforms and infrastructure expansion.

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The upcoming congress will determine the leadership structure, which includes the general secretary, president, prime minister, parliament chair, and a standing member of the party's secretariat. Current President Luong Cuong may retain his position, or he could be replaced by Defence Minister Phan Van Giang. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, who has survived previous reshuffles, faces potential challengers including former central bank chief Le Minh Hung and police general Luong Tam Quang. The final decisions will be influenced by a small circle of senior leaders, and candidates' home provinces may also play a role in maintaining geographic balance.

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To Lam has gained a reputation as an ambitious leader, implementing sweeping administrative and economic reforms that have garnered both support and criticism. His assertive leadership style has signaled to internal rivals and foreign investors his intent to pursue an ambitious agenda. However, disappointing trade negotiations with the United States, which imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods in August 2025, have tempered some of his ambitions. Observers speculate that Lam may seek to consolidate power by merging the roles of party chief and state president, similar to China's Xi Jinping, although this prospect appears dimmer following recent trade setbacks.

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While Lam's reforms have impressed many foreign investors, critics argue that the benefits are concentrated among a narrow group of well-connected firms. A foreign diplomat remarked, "When he promotes the 'private sector', he means the private companies that are nicely tied up to the party." Public sentiment regarding Lam's leadership is difficult to gauge, given the restrictions on dissent and state-controlled media in Vietnam.

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The upcoming congress will not only finalize leadership positions but also set key policy and economic targets for the next five years. Approximately 1,600 delegates will attend, representing over 5 million party members. The congress will appoint members to the Central Committee, which then selects the Politburo, the most powerful body in Vietnam's political system. Despite the potential for surprises, leadership outcomes are largely predetermined through internal party vetting processes.

Inside Vietnam’s Leadership Transition

• “I propose that you all focus your intellect and responsibility to select personnel to be nominated for the 14th Party Congress in a straightforward, objective and impartial manner,” — To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam

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• “When he promotes the 'private sector', he means the private companies that are nicely tied up to the party,” — Anonymous foreign diplomat

The Straits Times

This leadership transition underscores Vietnam's ongoing balancing act between maintaining political stability and pursuing ambitious economic reforms amid external pressures.

Inside Vietnam’s Leadership Transition